Yes, in places. Across 350 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.19); over 7-8f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.16); over 9-12f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.18). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 350 races · updated 9 June 2026
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 7.2% 41 wins | 12.1% | 1.07 vs course avg | 1.36 vs market | 60.5% | 570 |
| Middle | 4.9% 24 wins | 8.5% | 0.72 vs course avg | 0.69 vs market | 59.5% | 494 |
| High (outside) | 8% 42 wins | 12.4% | 1.19 vs course avg | 0.91 vs market | 60.2% | 525 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 6.1% 40 wins | 11.5% | 0.87 vs course avg | 1.09 vs market | 57.5% | 661 |
| Middle | 6.8% 39 wins | 10.1% | 0.98 vs course avg | 0.90 vs market | 56.7% | 572 |
| High (outside) | 8.1% 50 wins | 13.4% | 1.16 vs course avg | 0.99 vs market | 63.5% | 619 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 6.6% 21 wins | 12.7% | 0.75 vs course avg | 0.57 vs market | 58.8% | 316 |
| Middle | 10.4% 28 wins | 16% | 1.18 vs course avg | 1.32 vs market | 67.9% | 268 |
| High (outside) | 9.9% 29 wins | 14.6% | 1.11 vs course avg | 1.12 vs market | 59.2% | 294 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 10.4% 15 wins | 18.1% | 1.18 vs course avg | 1.23 vs market | 65.2% | 144 |
| Middle | 9.2% 11 wins | 13.4% | 1.05 vs course avg | 1.11 vs market | 62.7% | 119 |
| High (outside) | 6.8% 9 wins | 12.8% | 0.77 vs course avg | 0.61 vs market | 54.6% | 133 |
Yes, in places. Across 350 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.19); over 7-8f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.16); over 9-12f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.18). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Partly. Some favoured bands at Ascot show A/E below 1 (bias over-priced), others do not — the tables below show which is which.
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.