The track record
Every claim on this page is checkable: every pick timestamped before the off, every result settled in public, every price archived. This is the whole record — not a highlight reel.
Across 243 measured picks. Positive CLV is the strongest predictor of long-run edge.
Share of advised prices better than the closing price. Coin-flip would be ~50% — but note the best-book-vs-SP caveat below.
261 posted, 243 settled. Append-only and database-frozen — every historical edit sits on a public audit log (15 recorded).
Where the season test stands
At a 16% strike rate, ±38pt of pure luck is normal over this sample — the current −37.6pt is inside that band. The test runs the full season; we publish the autopsy whatever it says. Why we publish drawdowns →
Bankroll over time
The two ledgers · public card vs shadow challenger
v1.0 (the open heuristic model) fronts the public card. v1.1, a machine-learned value model, has run silently alongside it since day one — same rules, same public settlement, fewer picks (it only bets when it sees value against the market).
v1.1 takes over the public card if and only if both models reach 300+ settled picks and v1.1 leads by 25+ pointsat that moment. The rule is fixed now, in advance, so the decision can't be fudged after the fact — and if the gap flips, v1.0 simply stays.
Status: v1.0 243/300 · v1.1 194/300 · current gap +31.6pt to v1.1 — sample still building; nothing promotes until 300/300.
Pick freeze: every published pick is database-frozen — any identity change or deletion is recorded in a public audit table; settlement stamps (win/lose/void) are the only fields that change after publication. The freeze earned its keep in its first week: it caught the daily picker re-publishing same-day picks with refreshed prices. Fixed 11 Aug 2026 — the picker is now strictly append-only, affected same-day picks were restored to their first-published advice, and the whole episode is on the audit log — full disclosure with every timestamp here. Race-by-race detail for both models is on the head-to-head page.
What is closing line value?
We advise a price at 9am — say 9/2.
The market closes at 4/1. The money agreed with us — our price was value.
Do that consistently and profit follows the maths — win, lose or drawdown in any given month.
Caveat we volunteer: best-book-vs-SP comparisons flatter everyone who shops prices. That's why we publish the raw pairs — the full CLV ledger →
What you'd have made following the card — pick a stake and period
Level stakes on every v1.0 pick we've published.
Heuristic picker
£10 level stake on every settled pick over the last 30 days. Voids and non-runners excluded. Settled at the advised price (not SP). Past performance does not predict future results — these are tracked picks, not advice. 18+ only · Bet responsibly.
Watch the test unfold — one email a morning
The full card, yesterday's settled results, and the running scoreboard. Free, unsubscribe any time.
18+ · Tips are opinions, not advice · BeGambleAware.org