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Closing Line Value

CLV is the difference between the price we advised and the SP. Positive CLV means the market shortened our pick — money came in after us. It's the only credibility signal that's genuinely hard to fake.

Mean CLV · all models · 440 picks
+17.5%+17.5
Beat the close
67%
295/440 picks

Positive mean CLV is the long-run market-recognised proof that our picks add information the market hasn't priced in. ROI & strike rate can fluke over small samples; CLV can't.

CLV by model

v1.0
Heuristic picker
+18.2%
173/243 beat close
71% hit rate
v1.1
ML model (shadow)
+16.3%
119/194 beat close
61% hit rate
Furlong
Goes the distance
+41.6%
3/3 beat close
100% hit rate

Every settled pick (440)

How CLV is computed: CLV% = (advised_price / SP) − 1. Advised price is the bookmaker's price at the moment we published the pick; SP is the official Starting Price from the Racing API result payload. Voided runners (non-runners) are excluded.

Why it matters:In a deep market, the SP reflects everyone's information by the off. Consistently beating it means our picks priced something the market hadn't — which is the definition of edge. A handful of picks tells us nothing; ~100+ picks per model is where the signal firms up.

The honest caveat: our advised price is the best bookmaker price at publish time, while SP is closer to an industry average — so taking the best price beats SP partly by construction, and anyone who shops prices earns some of this number without any prediction skill. Read the absolute % as generous; what carries information is the trend, and whether it stays positive as the sample grows.

See also: head-to-head ROI & bankroll · published tip ledger.