Closing Line Value

CLV is the difference between the price we advised and the SP. Positive CLV means the market shortened our pick — money came in after us. It's the only credibility signal that's genuinely hard to fake.

Mean CLV · all models · 11 picks

+13.8%+13.8

Beat the close

55%

6/11 picks

Positive mean CLV is the long-run market-recognised proof that our picks add information the market hasn't priced in. ROI & strike rate can fluke over small samples; CLV can't.

CLV by model

Headline tip

+35.0%

1/1 beat close

100% hit rate

v1.0

Heuristic picker

-0.1%

1/4 beat close

25% hit rate

v1.1

ML model (shadow)

-2.7%

1/3 beat close

33% hit rate

Furlong

Goes the distance

+41.6%

3/3 beat close

100% hit rate

Every settled pick (11)

CLV ledger
Date	Model	Race	Selection	Advised	SP	CLV
20 May	Tip	4:30Warwick	Louie The Legend	9/2·5.40	3/1·4.00	+35.0%
20 May	v1.1	3:50Ffos Las	Green Asset	9/2·5.60	11/2·6.50	-13.8%
20 May	v1.1	4:30Warwick	Onehundredneighty	9/4·3.25	2/1·3.00	+8.3%
20 May	v1.1	5:22Ffos Las	Forest Spirit	11/4·3.65	11/4·3.75	-2.7%
20 May	v1.0	3:20Ffos Las	Fiskardo	3/1·4.10	4/1·5.00	-18.0%
20 May	v1.0	3:50Ffos Las	Green Asset	5/1·6.00	11/2·6.50	-7.7%
20 May	v1.0	5:22Ffos Las	Jlow	5/1·5.90	5/1·6.00	-1.7%
20 May	v1.0	4:30Warwick	Louie The Legend	9/2·5.50	10/3·4.33	+27.0%
20 May	Furlong	8:00Kempton (AW)	I'm Workin On It	10/3·4.33	3/1·4.00	+8.3%
20 May	Furlong	3:42Ayr	Hale End	4/1·4.80	15/8·2.88	+66.7%
20 May	Furlong	5:00Warwick	High Fibre	7/2·4.50	2/1·3.00	+50.0%

How CLV is computed: CLV% = (advised_price / SP) − 1. Advised price is the bookmaker's price at the moment we published the pick; SP is the official Starting Price from the Racing API result payload. Voided runners (non-runners) are excluded.

Why it matters:In a deep market, the SP reflects everyone's information by the off. Consistently beating it means our picks priced something the market hadn't — which is the definition of edge. A handful of picks tells us nothing; ~100+ picks per model is where the signal firms up.