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RacingAlpha

Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Classified Stakes (Div I)

1m · Flat · Class 6 · Standard · 10 runners · £3,454 · Monday, 13 July 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick placed 2nd
  1. 1st
    Love You More (GB)
    Billy Loughnane·Joseph Parr
    100/30·4.33
    SP
  2. 2nd
    Nutcracker (GB)AI top pick · 43.0
    Rossa Ryan·Tony Carroll·beaten .5 lengths
    2/1F·3.00
    SP
  3. 3rd
    Manton Road (GB)
    Kieren Fox·Richard Phillips·beaten 0.3 lengths
    5/1·6.00
    SP
Race time
1m 39.92s

Race time recorded.

In-running (Love You More (GB))

sluggish start towards the back - made ground over 2f out - driven and eased right approaching the last - powered clear in the final furlong to hit the front close home

Settled · 1pt level stake = 2.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

v1.11.23 score
Celtic John
12.00Ladbrokes

segment +7.8% · Flat · Standard · Class 6

Each-way31.6/100 rating
Manton Road
7.80Betfair Exchange

Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party
Pundit pick: Raqraaq

Raqraaq sits just behind Nutcracker on pure figures but gets the nod here on a progressive profile and a fitness edge into this race. Nutcracker himself cannot be dismissed on the back of some solid recent finishes, while Love You More and Monks Mead also carry claims in this field. It's a competitive puzzle and confidence is low, but Raqraaq is our selection on the balance of the picture.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Nutcracker

Rossa Ryan · Tony Carroll · 4yo

Top-rated of 10
score 43.0 · +8.6 clear of next best (34.4)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Freshness10% weight
    70strong
    6d since last run (quick turnaround)
  • Form20% weight
    69strong
    Last 6: 7-7-3-3-2-1
  • Ratings50% weight
    33weak
    OR 50 — highest combined rating in the field
  • Trainer20% weight
    28weak
    Tony Carroll: 5/46 winners last 14d (11%)
MarketBest price 3.55 (Betfair Exchange) · market favourite.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Lingfield (AW) 1m

full course data →

Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.15).

Low (1–4)
IV 0.77
Mid (5–7)
IV 1.11
High (8–10)
IV 1.15

Today: Keeper Of Secrets (draw 10) and Raqraaq (draw 9) get the bias; Nutcracker (draw 2) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 408 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

PosNo.HorseFormORAISP
15
J: Billy Loughnane · T: Joseph Parr · draw 7
4yo · F · bh
82707
5030.5
100/30·4.33
SP
21
J: Rossa Ryan · T: Tony Carroll · draw 2
4yo · G · gr
773321
5043.0
2/1F·3.00
SP
36
J: Kieren Fox · T: Richard Phillips · draw 4
4yo · G · bb
577032
4931.6
5/1·6.00
SP
47
J: George Bass · T: Mark Usher · draw 8
5yo · G · gr
432830
4629.4
17/2·9.50
SP
58
J: David Probert · T: Patrick Chamings · draw 9
8yo · G · bb
76308
4829.8
11/1·12.00
SP
62
J: Paddy Bradley · T: Pat Phelan · draw 5
5yo · G · ch
167440
4729.8
3/1·4.00
SP
74
J: Charles Bishop · T: Ian Williams · draw 10
5yo · G · bp
88447
4634.4
50/1·51.00
SP
83
J: Jack Doughty · T: Tony Carroll · draw 1
4yo · G · b
57687
4632.5
40/1·41.00
SP
910
J: Marco Ghiani · T: Simon Dow · draw 3
3yo · F · b
979
3523.5
150/1·151.00
SP
109
J: George Wood · T: Mark Loughnane · draw 6
3yo · F · bt
598
4025.7
200/1·201.00
SP

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 19:40 Lingfield (AW) on 13 July 2026?

Love You More (GB) won the 19:40 Lingfield (AW) at SP 4.33. Ridden by Billy Loughnane. Trained by Joseph Parr.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 19:40 Lingfield (AW)?

No — the AI top pick (Nutcracker) finished 2.

What were the placings in the 19:40 Lingfield (AW)?

Top finishers: 1. Love You More (GB) (4.33), 2. Nutcracker (GB) (3.00), 3. Manton Road (GB) (6.00).

What was the winning time for the 19:40 Lingfield (AW)?

The winning time was 1m 39.92s.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org