Who won the 14:00 Southwell (AW) on 16 August 2026?
Heretic (IRE) won the 14:00 Southwell (AW) at SP 7.00. Ridden by David Probert. Trained by Michael Herrington.
14:00 Southwell (AW)
Fraser Plus Designer Outlet East Midlands Handicap Stakes
1m · Flat · Class 6 · Standard · 13 runners · £4,711 · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Result
AI top pick finished 7thRace report
- 1stHeretic (IRE)David Probert·Michael Herrington6/1·7.00SP
- 2ndHave You A Minute (GB)Hector Crouch·Tom Tate·beaten 2 lengths11/1·12.00SP
- 3rdSplinterwood (GB)Daniel Muscutt·Michael Appleby·beaten 1 length20/1·21.00SP
Race time
1m 40.68s
Race time recorded.
In-running (Heretic (IRE))
“Set off in front early - established a commanding lead into the straight - shaken up over 2f out - had the race sewn up when driven approaching the final furlong - kept finding more to the line - unopposed throughout”
AI top-rated Timebar (score 58.8) finished 7th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 5.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Other selections
Head-to-head dashboard →v1.12.58 score
Heretic
9.60Betfair Exchange
segment +7.8% · Flat · Standard · Class 6
Each-way58.8/100 rating
Timebar
8.40Betfair Exchange
Top-half AI rating in the EW price sweet spot. Each-way splits stake: half on the win, half on the place portion.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Create
Create heads into this Class 6 Southwell contest narrowly behind the top-rated Barleybrown on ratings, but a progressive profile and fitness edge make a compelling case for preferring the selection over what is a fairly compressed field at the foot of the ladder. Barleybrown, Mercurius Power and Heretic all represent genuine dangers and cannot be dismissed lightly, and with confidence modest this is no banker. That said, Create is the one to be with.
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Timebar
Jack G Gilligan · Roy Bowring · 5yo
Top-rated of 13
score 58.8 · +7.0 clear of next best (51.8)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Trainer20% weight100small sample (n=2)Roy Bowring: 1/2 winners last 14d (50%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
- Freshness10% weight100very strong22d since last run (race-fit window)
- Form20% weight62averageLast 6: 4-2-8-2-2
- Ratings50% weight33weakOR 49
MarketBest price 8.40 (Betfair Exchange) · 4th in the market of 13.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Southwell (AW) 1m
full course data →No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.
Low (1–5)
IV 0.96
Mid (6–10)
IV 1.04
High (11–14)
IV 1.01
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 587 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | Hereticv1.1 J: David Probert · T: Michael Herrington · draw 6 7yo · G · chtp | 438732 | 51 | 47.7 | 6/1·7.00 SP |
| 2 | 11 | J: Hector Crouch · T: Tom Tate · draw 12 6yo · G · b | 15609 | 50 | 26.5 | 11/1·12.00 SP |
| 3 | 10 | J: Daniel Muscutt · T: Michael Appleby · draw 2 4yo · G · b | 7679 | 50 | 33.1 | 20/1·21.00 SP |
| 4 | 14 | J: Duran Fentiman · T: Tim Easterby · draw 5 5yo · G · btp | 296906 | 48 | 32.8 | 20/1·21.00 SP |
| 5 | 3 | J: P J McDonald · T: Ruth Carr · draw 13 6yo · G · bp | 376628 | 54 | 41.0 | 8/1·9.00 SP |
| 6 | 5 | J: Jack Callan · T: Joseph Parr · draw 8 4yo · F · bh | 27071 | 53 | 35.1 | 9/2·5.50 SP |
| 7 | 13 | J: Jack G Gilligan · T: Roy Bowring · draw 9 5yo · G · bt | 42822 | 49 | 58.8 | 5/1·6.00 SP |
| 8 | 12 | J: Dale Swift · T: Seb Spencer · draw 1 6yo · G · ch | 4805 | 49 | 24.5 | 125/1·126.00 SP |
| 9 | 1 | J: Billy Loughnane · T: Ian Williams · draw 4 4yo · F · b | 54005 | 55 | 38.9 | 10/1·11.00 SP |
| 10 | 7 | J: Rob Hornby · T: Dean Ivory · draw 11 7yo · G · bb | 443536 | 51 | 35.1 | 16/1·17.00 SP |
| 11 | 8 | J: Kieran O'Neill · T: Scott Dixon · draw 14 6yo · M · bp | 000471 | 51 | 43.6 | 12/1·13.00 SP |
| 12 | 6 | J: George Wood · T: Jennie Candlish · draw 3 4yo · G · b | 77700 | 52 | 43.5 | 16/1·17.00 SP |
| 13 | 2 | J: Darragh Keenan · T: Lemos De Souza · draw 7 4yo · G · b | 16297 | 54 | 51.8 | 4/1F·5.00 SP |
| — | — | J: Ray Dawson · T: Jessica Macey · draw 10 8yo · G · btp | 667852 | 53 | 34.9 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 14:00 Southwell (AW)?
No — the AI top pick (Timebar) finished 7.
What were the placings in the 14:00 Southwell (AW)?
Top finishers: 1. Heretic (IRE) (7.00), 2. Have You A Minute (GB) (12.00), 3. Splinterwood (GB) (21.00).
What was the winning time for the 14:00 Southwell (AW)?
The winning time was 1m 40.68s.
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