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19:46 Lingfield (AW)

Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Handicap Stakes

1m · Flat · Class 6 · Standard · 6 runners · £3,768 · Saturday, 15 August 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick wonat SP 1/2F·1.50
  1. 1st
    Fallacious Promise (GB)AI top pick · 56.7
    Luke Morris·John Butler
    1/2F·1.50
    SP
  2. 2nd
    Chapman's Peak (GB)
    Edward Greatrex·Ed Dunlop·beaten 3.25 lengths
    16/1·17.00
    SP
  3. 3rd
    Dark Rosa (IRE)
    Rose Dawes·Georgina Nicholls·beaten .5 lengths
    4/1·5.00
    SP
Race time
1m 40.11s

Race time recorded.

In-running (Fallacious Promise (GB))

“Handy early - settled just behind the pace - urged forward with 2f left - hit the front inside final furlong - pulled clear to score”

Settled · 1pt level stake = 0.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Other selections

Head-to-head dashboard →
v1.12.10 score
Dark Rosa
6.50Unibet

segment +7.8% · Flat · Standard · Class 6

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party
Pundit pick: Dark Rosa

Dark Rosa holds a clear edge over the field on ratings, sitting narrowly ahead of Shamacid and Fallacious Promise, who represent the principal dangers if Dark Rosa fails to reproduce her best form over this Lingfield eight-furlong surface. Shamacid and Fallacious Promise will need to step up considerably to bridge the gap, while Chapman's Peak could outrun expectations if conditions suit. On the balance of the evidence, Dark Rosa is the one to be on.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Fallacious Promise

Luke Morris · John Butler · 3yo

Top-rated of 6
score 56.7 · +13.5 clear of next best (43.2)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Form20% weight
    86very strong
    Last 6: 2-2-3-1-2-1
  • Freshness10% weight
    70strong
    5d since last run (quick turnaround)
  • Trainer20% weight
    58average
    John Butler: 5/22 winners last 14d (23%)
  • Ratings50% weight
    42below average
    OR 63
MarketBest price 1.46 (Betfair Exchange) · market favourite.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Lingfield (AW) 1m

full course data →

Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.15).

Low (1–2)
IV 0.77
Mid (3–4)
IV 1.11
High (5–6)
IV 1.15

Today: Mbappe (draw 6) and Chapman's Peak (draw 5) get the bias; Shamacid (draw 1) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 408 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

PosNo.HorseFormORAISP
13
Fallacious Promise
J: Luke Morris · T: John Butler · draw 3
3yo · G · b
223121
6356.7
1/2F·1.50
SP
25
Chapman's Peak
J: Edward Greatrex · T: Ed Dunlop · draw 5
3yo · G · bpFT P
17884
6439.5
16/1·17.00
SP
31
Dark Rosav1.1
J: Rose Dawes(5) · T: Georgina Nicholls · draw 2
4yo · F · br
579836
6536.8
4/1·5.00
SP
42
Shamacid
J: Mason Paetel(5) · T: S Woods · draw 1
4yo · G · cht
632058
6243.2
16/1·17.00
SP
54
Mbappe
J: Jack Callan · T: Mark Loughnane · draw 6
5yo · G · bp
31676
5840.7
33/1·34.00
SP
66
Credit Forgedd It
J: Pat Cosgrave · T: Simon Dow · draw 4
3yo · G · ch
59423
6140.9
13/2·7.50
SP

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 19:46 Lingfield (AW) on 15 August 2026?

Fallacious Promise (GB) won the 19:46 Lingfield (AW) at SP 1.50. Ridden by Luke Morris. Trained by John Butler.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 19:46 Lingfield (AW)?

Yes — the AI top-rated horse, Fallacious Promise, won the race (AI score 56.7).

What were the placings in the 19:46 Lingfield (AW)?

Top finishers: 1. Fallacious Promise (GB) (1.50), 2. Chapman's Peak (GB) (17.00), 3. Dark Rosa (IRE) (5.00).

What was the winning time for the 19:46 Lingfield (AW)?

The winning time was 1m 40.11s.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org