14:30 Lingfield (AW)

Free Bets On attheraces.com Nursery Handicap Stakes

1m · Flat · Class 5 · Standard · 5 runners · £3,978 · Monday, 17 August 2026

E/W terms2 places at 1/4 odds in a 5-runner field — the place half of an each-way bet has historically returned −14% to −22% at these terms· the study →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Top rated

Poppy Foxy

No. 2 · score 56.8 · +5.1 clear of next best · best 9/2·5.50

Best value vs consensus

Magical Life

4.9·4.90 Betfair Exchange · +8% vs fair (consensus 4.56)

One book stands out from the de-overrounded consensus of 30 bookmakers. A price check, not a tip — the market can be wrong about a horse.

Model testThis race is on v1.0's public test card: Poppy Foxy advised 4/1·5.00 (Bet365), frozen at publication — win or lose, it stays on the ledger.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: ParadingDiffers from our pick

Parading holds a narrow edge on ratings over Poppy Foxy and Little Mester, and over a mile on the Lingfield all-weather surface this sort of consistent profile can prove decisive in a tight Class 5 heat. Poppy Foxy and Little Mester are the most pressing dangers and will need to be watched closely throughout, while Pequenita cannot be entirely dismissed if the pace suits. On balance, the ratings edge and overall profile point in one direction, and Parading is the selection.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Poppy Foxy

Saffie Osborne · Charlie Clover · 2yo

Top-rated of 5

score 56.8 · +5.1 clear of next best (51.7)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
85very strong
41d since last run (fresh)
Trainer20% weight
63small sample (n=8)
Charlie Clover: 2/8 winners last 14d (25%) — too few recent runs to judge the yard
Form20% weight
62average
Last 6: 6-1-5-2
Ratings50% weight
47below average
OR 70 — highest combined rating in the field

MarketBest price 5.50 (William Hill) · 4th in the market of 5.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Pace map

inferred from last 6 runs

Shape: Lone front-runner — could dictate from the front if unchallenged.

Front-runners(1)
2Poppy Foxy
Prominent(0)—
Mid-division(0)—
Hold-up / closers(1)
6Magical Life
Unknown(3)
3Pequenita 4Little Mester 5Parading

Bucketed from the opening clause of each past run's comment. Front-runner / prominent / mid / hold-up — the classic race-shape framework. Unknown = no usable comments parsed.

Draw bias — Lingfield (AW) 1m

full course data →

Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.15).

Low (1–2)

IV 0.77

Mid (3–4)

IV 1.11

High (5–6)

IV 1.15

Today: Little Mester (draw 6) gets the bias; Parading (draw 2) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 408 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by AI score

Fair price = de-overrounded market consensus · green best price = beats fair

No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	Fair	Best
2	Poppy FoxyPick J: Saffie Osborne · T: Charlie Clover · draw 4 2yo · F · bOnly runner	6152	9-08	70	—	—	56.8	9/2·5.69	9/2·5.50 William Hill · -3% vs fair All 30 books ▾ William Hill9/2·5.50 Ladbrokes9/2·5.50 Coral9/2·5.50 Bet3659/2·5.50 Betfair Exchange5.2·5.20 Star Sports4/1·5.00 Betfred4/1·5.00 BetAhoy4/1·5.00 Quinn Bet4/1·5.00 Boyle Sports4/1·5.00 Unibet4/1·5.00 BetTom4/1·5.00 Midnite4/1·5.00Virgin Bet4/1·5.00talkSPORT BET4/1·5.00 BetWright4/1·5.00 Spreadex4/1·5.00Octobet4/1·5.00BresBet4/1·5.00BestOdds4/1·5.007Bet4/1·5.00 LiveScore Bet4/1·5.00 Betano4/1·5.00 Dragon Bet4/1·5.00 CopyBet4/1·5.00 SmarketsSBK4/1·5.00 10 Bet4/1·5.00 Bet Victor4/1·5.00 PricedUp Bet4/1·5.00 SportingIndex4/1·5.00
5	Parading J: Pat Dobbs · T: Richard Hughes · draw 2 2yo · C · bOnly rideOnly runner	05232	9-05	67	—	—	51.7	4/1·5.13	4.7·4.70 Betfair Exchange · -8% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Betfair Exchange4.7·4.70 SmarketsSBK7/2·4.50 Bet3657/2·4.50 Star Sports7/2·4.50 BetAhoy7/2·4.50 Spreadex7/2·4.50Octobet7/2·4.50William Hill7/2·4.50 Coral7/2·4.50Virgin Bet7/2·4.50SportingIndex7/2·4.50 Quinn Bet7/2·4.50 Betfred7/2·4.50 Boyle Sports7/2·4.50 Ladbrokes7/2·4.50 Unibet7/2·4.50 BetTom7/2·4.50 10 Bet7/2·4.50 LiveScore Bet7/2·4.50 CopyBet7/2·4.50 PricedUp Bet7/2·4.50 BresBet10/3·4.33 Midnite10/3·4.33 talkSPORT BET10/3·4.33BestOdds10/3·4.33BetWright10/3·4.33 7Bet10/3·4.33 Bet Victor10/3·4.33 Betano10/3·4.33 Dragon Bet10/3·4.33
3	Pequenita J: Oisin Murphy · T: Andrew Balding · draw 3 · combo 19/94 (20%) 2yo · F · bClass drop	43	9-08	70	—	—	48.3	15/8·2.85	2.68·2.68 Betfair Exchange · -6% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Betfair Exchange2.68·2.68 LiveScore Bet6/4·2.50 BetAhoy6/4·2.50 BetTom6/4·2.50 Spreadex6/4·2.50 Boyle Sports6/4·2.50 Ladbrokes6/4·2.50 BetWright6/4·2.50 Coral6/4·2.50 Dragon Bet6/4·2.50 CopyBet6/4·2.50 PricedUp Bet6/4·2.50 BresBet6/4·2.50Virgin Bet6/4·2.50Betfred6/4·2.50 Unibet6/4·2.50 10 Bet6/4·2.50Octobet6/4·2.507Bet6/4·2.50 Star Sports6/4·2.50 Midnite6/4·2.50 SportingIndex6/4·2.50 William Hill6/4·2.50BestOdds6/4·2.50Quinn Bet6/4·2.50 SmarketsSBK6/4·2.50 Bet Victor11/8·2.38 Betano11/8·2.38 talkSPORT BET11/8·2.38 Bet36511/8·2.38
6	Magical Life J: William Cox · T: J S Moore · draw 1 2yo · F · bOn last winning markDOnly ride	545431	8-09	51	—	—	46.8	7/2·4.56	4.9·4.90 Betfair Exchange · +8% vs fair All 30 books ▾ Betfair Exchange4.9·4.90 Bet3657/2·4.50 SmarketsSBK7/2·4.50 William Hill10/3·4.33 Coral10/3·4.33 Ladbrokes10/3·4.33 Unibet10/3·4.33BestOdds3/1·4.007Bet3/1·4.00 BetTom3/1·4.00 Bet Victor3/1·4.00 10 Bet3/1·4.00 SportingIndex3/1·4.00 Betano3/1·4.00 Dragon Bet3/1·4.00 Star Sports3/1·4.00 Betfred3/1·4.00 Boyle Sports3/1·4.00 Midnite3/1·4.00 Quinn Bet3/1·4.00 talkSPORT BET3/1·4.00 BetWright3/1·4.00 LiveScore Bet3/1·4.00 CopyBet3/1·4.00 PricedUp Bet3/1·4.00 BetAhoy3/1·4.00 Spreadex3/1·4.00Octobet3/1·4.00BresBet3/1·4.00Virgin Bet3/1·4.00
4	Little Mester J: Jack Doughty · T: Stuart Williams · draw 6 · combo 1/12 (8%) 2yo · G · b	463	9-05	67	—	—	44.7	16/1·17.08	16/1·17.00 BetTom All 30 books ▾ BetTom16/1·17.00 PricedUp Bet16/1·17.00 SportingIndex16/1·17.00 Unibet16/1·17.00 Spreadex16/1·17.00Octobet16/1·17.00William Hill16/1·17.00 Coral16/1·17.00 Ladbrokes16/1·17.00 BetAhoy16/1·17.00 SmarketsSBK15/1·16.00 Betfair Exchange15.5·15.50Virgin Bet14/1·15.0010 Bet14/1·15.00 Midnite14/1·15.00 Quinn Bet14/1·15.00 Star Sports14/1·15.00 BresBet14/1·15.00BestOdds14/1·15.007Bet14/1·15.00 Bet36514/1·15.00 Betfred14/1·15.00 Boyle Sports14/1·15.00 BetWright14/1·15.00 LiveScore Bet14/1·15.00 Dragon Bet14/1·15.00 CopyBet14/1·15.00 talkSPORT BET12/1·13.00 Bet Victor12/1·13.00 Betano12/1·13.00
—	Crazy CubanaNon-runner J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Ed Walker · draw 5 2yo · F · b	1030	9-09	71	—	—	—	—	Withdrawn

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest · Fair= the market's own consensus: median price across 30 bookmakers per horse with the 14% overround stripped out. A green best price pays above that consensus — a price check, not a tip: the market can be wrong about a horse, this only tells you when a book stands out from it.

Frequently asked questions

What time is the Free Bets On attheraces.com Nursery Handicap Stakes?

The Free Bets On attheraces.com Nursery Handicap Stakes is off at 14:30 on 17 August 2026 at Lingfield (AW) (Great Britain).

What is the field size and distance of the 14:30 Lingfield (AW)?

1m, Class 5, Flat, 5 runners declared.

What is the going for the 14:30 Lingfield (AW)?

Going is reported as Standard on AW.

What is the Racing Alpha AI top pick for the 14:30 Lingfield (AW)?

The AI top-rated runner is Poppy Foxy (score 56.8, best price 5.50). Methodology: ratings combine OR, RPR, TS, trainer 14-day form, days since last run and going.

Who is the favourite for the 14:30 Lingfield (AW)?

The market favourite is Pequenita at a best price of 2.68. The Racing Alpha AI top pick is a different horse — Poppy Foxy.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org