Yes, in places. Across 348 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.24); over 9-12f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.20). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 348 races · updated 9 June 2026
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 11.4% 55 wins | 18.3% | 1.24 vs course avg | 0.96 vs market | 67.4% | 482 |
| Middle | 9% 36 wins | 15.5% | 0.98 vs course avg | 1.38 vs market | 62.3% | 400 |
| High (outside) | 6.9% 30 wins | 12.2% | 0.75 vs course avg | 0.71 vs market | 52.2% | 436 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 10.7% 54 wins | 17.6% | 1.06 vs course avg | 1.01 vs market | 61.3% | 505 |
| Middle | 9.3% 39 wins | 16.5% | 0.92 vs course avg | 0.95 vs market | 61.7% | 418 |
| High (outside) | 10.2% 47 wins | 17.7% | 1.01 vs course avg | 1.03 vs market | 64.8% | 462 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 7.7% 16 wins | 13.5% | 0.76 vs course avg | 0.75 vs market | 56.2% | 208 |
| Middle | 10.7% 18 wins | 19.6% | 1.06 vs course avg | 0.83 vs market | 66.8% | 168 |
| High (outside) | 12.1% 23 wins | 18.9% | 1.20 vs course avg | 1.49 vs market | 62.8% | 190 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.7% 9 wins | 18.3% | 0.86 vs course avg | 0.62 vs market | 59.9% | 93 |
| Middle | 12.8% 10 wins | 16.7% | 1.14 vs course avg | 0.86 vs market | 64.9% | 78 |
| High (outside) | 11.6% 10 wins | 19.8% | 1.03 vs course avg | 1.53 vs market | 67.9% | 86 |
Yes, in places. Across 348 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.24); over 9-12f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.20). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Not fully. The favoured thirds at Ayr hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.