Is there a draw bias at Ballinrobe?
Not meaningfully. Across 38 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09, no distance band at Ballinrobe shows an IV spread big enough to call a real stall bias.
Ballinrobe draw bias
Not meaningfully. Across 38 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09, no distance band at Ballinrobe shows an IV spread big enough to call a real stall bias.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 38 races · updated 9 June 2026
9-12f · 38 races
Sample too small to call9-12f · 38 races · field avg win 9.7%
Sample too small to call
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 8.8% 13 wins | 17% | 0.91 vs course avg | 1.29 vs market | 65.3% | 147 |
| Middle | 4.3% 5 wins | 13% | 0.45 vs course avg | 0.57 vs market | 52.2% | 115 |
| High (outside) | 15.3% 20 wins | 21.4% | 1.58 vs course avg | 1.03 vs market | 64% | 131 |
Common questions
Does the market already price in the Ballinrobe draw bias?
With no strong bias to price, stall position at Ballinrobe is rarely a value angle either way — judge each race on pace and ability.
What do IV, A/E and PRB mean?
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Keep going
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.