Yes, in places. Across 421 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.12); over 7-8f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.18); over 13f+ — strong: middle favoured (iv 1.36). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 421 races · updated 9 June 2026
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 11% 76 wins | 20.5% | 1.12 vs course avg | 1.11 vs market | 64.1% | 689 |
| Middle | 10.5% 60 wins | 17.6% | 1.06 vs course avg | 1.20 vs market | 62.4% | 574 |
| High (outside) | 8% 50 wins | 14.4% | 0.81 vs course avg | 0.69 vs market | 56.8% | 626 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 11.5% 46 wins | 20% | 1.18 vs course avg | 1.22 vs market | 64.6% | 400 |
| Middle | 9.5% 31 wins | 16.8% | 0.97 vs course avg | 0.84 vs market | 58.6% | 328 |
| High (outside) | 8% 29 wins | 16.3% | 0.82 vs course avg | 0.91 vs market | 58.5% | 363 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 10.6% 33 wins | 16.8% | 1.06 vs course avg | 0.98 vs market | 63.2% | 310 |
| Middle | 10.8% 27 wins | 16% | 1.08 vs course avg | 1.49 vs market | 62.2% | 250 |
| High (outside) | 8.7% 25 wins | 16.4% | 0.87 vs course avg | 0.60 vs market | 64.3% | 287 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 8.3% 14 wins | 14.8% | 0.88 vs course avg | 0.95 vs market | 59.6% | 169 |
| Middle | 12.8% 17 wins | 18.8% | 1.36 vs course avg | 1.29 vs market | 67.2% | 133 |
| High (outside) | 7.8% 12 wins | 12.3% | 0.83 vs course avg | 0.76 vs market | 60.1% | 154 |
Yes, in places. Across 421 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.12); over 7-8f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.18); over 13f+ — strong: middle favoured (iv 1.36). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Not fully. The favoured thirds at Bath hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.