Is there a draw bias at Bellewstown?
Not meaningfully. Across 88 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09, no distance band at Bellewstown shows an IV spread big enough to call a real stall bias.
Bellewstown draw bias
Not meaningfully. Across 88 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09, no distance band at Bellewstown shows an IV spread big enough to call a real stall bias.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 88 races · updated 9 June 2026
5-6f · 30 races
Sample too small to call5-6f · 30 races · field avg win 9.1%
Sample too small to call
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.9% 12 wins | 17.4% | 1.08 vs course avg | 1.36 vs market | 60.7% | 121 |
| Middle | 7% 7 wins | 13% | 0.77 vs course avg | 0.90 vs market | 60.9% | 100 |
| High (outside) | 10.3% 11 wins | 16.8% | 1.12 vs course avg | 0.77 vs market | 61.7% | 107 |
7-8f · 58 races
No meaningful draw bias7-8f · 58 races · field avg win 7.2%
No meaningful draw bias
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 7.8% 22 wins | 12.1% | 1.08 vs course avg | 0.76 vs market | 59.5% | 281 |
| Middle | 7.1% 18 wins | 11% | 0.98 vs course avg | 1.08 vs market | 65.6% | 254 |
| High (outside) | 6.7% 18 wins | 13.4% | 0.93 vs course avg | 1.19 vs market | 62.8% | 268 |
Common questions
Does the market already price in the Bellewstown draw bias?
With no strong bias to price, stall position at Bellewstown is rarely a value angle either way — judge each race on pace and ability.
What do IV, A/E and PRB mean?
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Keep going
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.