Brighton draw bias

Yes, in places. Across 349 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 9-12f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.15). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.

2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 349 races · updated 9 June 2026

5-6f · 114 races

No meaningful draw bias

5-6f · 114 races · field avg win 12.1%

No meaningful draw bias

Draw	Win %	Top-3 %	IV	A/E	PRB	Runs
Low (inside)	12.8% 45 wins	23.6%	1.06 vs course avg	0.88 vs market	67%	352
Middle	11.3% 32 wins	16.7%	0.94 vs course avg	1.45 vs market	57.3%	282
High (outside)	12% 37 wins	20.1%	0.99 vs course avg	0.78 vs market	62.1%	309

7-8f · 152 races

No meaningful draw bias

7-8f · 152 races · field avg win 11.1%

No meaningful draw bias

Draw	Win %	Top-3 %	IV	A/E	PRB	Runs
Low (inside)	10.8% 54 wins	16.8%	0.97 vs course avg	1.01 vs market	61.8%	500
Middle	10.3% 43 wins	17.8%	0.93 vs course avg	0.96 vs market	62.8%	416
High (outside)	12% 56 wins	20.4%	1.09 vs course avg	1.06 vs market	64.1%	465

9-12f · 83 races

Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.15)

9-12f · 83 races · field avg win 11.4%

Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.15)

Draw	Win %	Top-3 %	IV	A/E	PRB	Runs
Low (inside)	11% 30 wins	15.8%	0.96 vs course avg	0.88 vs market	64.6%	273
Middle	10.1% 22 wins	19.7%	0.89 vs course avg	0.75 vs market	70.2%	218
High (outside)	13.1% 31 wins	17.3%	1.15 vs course avg	1.35 vs market	66.1%	237

Common questions

Is there a draw bias at Brighton?

Does the market already price in the Brighton draw bias?

Not fully. The favoured thirds at Brighton hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.

What do IV, A/E and PRB mean?

IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.

Keep going

Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.