Yes, in places. Across 247 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 7-8f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.16); over 9-12f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.31). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 247 races · updated 9 June 2026
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.9% 36 wins | 16.6% | 0.99 vs course avg | 1.11 vs market | 54.3% | 362 |
| Middle | 11.1% 33 wins | 21.5% | 1.10 vs course avg | 1.13 vs market | 64% | 298 |
| High (outside) | 9.2% 30 wins | 17.4% | 0.91 vs course avg | 0.78 vs market | 60.7% | 327 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 10.1% 35 wins | 17% | 1.00 vs course avg | 1.02 vs market | 56.7% | 348 |
| Middle | 8.3% 24 wins | 19.4% | 0.83 vs course avg | 0.82 vs market | 58.2% | 288 |
| High (outside) | 11.7% 37 wins | 21.8% | 1.16 vs course avg | 1.13 vs market | 59.3% | 316 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 12.8% 25 wins | 19.5% | 1.31 vs course avg | 1.27 vs market | 65% | 195 |
| Middle | 8.7% 14 wins | 19.9% | 0.89 vs course avg | 1.13 vs market | 65.8% | 161 |
| High (outside) | 7.3% 13 wins | 14.7% | 0.75 vs course avg | 0.60 vs market | 54.1% | 177 |
Yes, in places. Across 247 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 7-8f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.16); over 9-12f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.31). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Not fully. The favoured thirds at Carlisle hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.