Yes, in places. Across 321 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.36); over 7-8f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.13); over 9-12f — strong: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.40). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 321 races · updated 9 June 2026
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 14.4% 73 wins | 23.8% | 1.36 vs course avg | 1.28 vs market | 68.3% | 508 |
| Middle | 8.3% 35 wins | 15% | 0.79 vs course avg | 0.84 vs market | 56.8% | 421 |
| High (outside) | 8.5% 39 wins | 15% | 0.80 vs course avg | 0.72 vs market | 56.3% | 461 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.7% 36 wins | 17.2% | 1.02 vs course avg | 0.73 vs market | 60.8% | 373 |
| Middle | 10.7% 33 wins | 15.6% | 1.13 vs course avg | 1.41 vs market | 60.2% | 307 |
| High (outside) | 8.2% 28 wins | 14.9% | 0.86 vs course avg | 0.93 vs market | 60.4% | 343 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9% 13 wins | 15.3% | 0.85 vs course avg | 0.90 vs market | 60.4% | 144 |
| Middle | 7.8% 9 wins | 13.9% | 0.74 vs course avg | 0.94 vs market | 59.1% | 115 |
| High (outside) | 14.8% 19 wins | 21.1% | 1.40 vs course avg | 1.15 vs market | 67.8% | 128 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 13.2% 14 wins | 28.3% | 1.27 vs course avg | 1.19 vs market | 67.6% | 106 |
| Middle | 11.6% 10 wins | 19.8% | 1.12 vs course avg | 1.01 vs market | 58.7% | 86 |
| High (outside) | 6.2% 6 wins | 9.3% | 0.60 vs course avg | 0.73 vs market | 47.7% | 97 |
Yes, in places. Across 321 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.36); over 7-8f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.13); over 9-12f — strong: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.40). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Not fully. The favoured thirds at Catterick hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.