Yes, in places. Across 297 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.38); over 7-8f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.11); over 9-12f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.23); over 13f+ — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.36). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 297 races · updated 9 June 2026
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 12.9% 44 wins | 22.6% | 1.38 vs course avg | 0.91 vs market | 68.4% | 340 |
| Middle | 8.3% 24 wins | 17% | 0.89 vs course avg | 0.66 vs market | 63.1% | 289 |
| High (outside) | 6.4% 20 wins | 10.3% | 0.69 vs course avg | 1.46 vs market | 57.3% | 312 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 10.4% 34 wins | 17.7% | 1.11 vs course avg | 0.87 vs market | 65.4% | 328 |
| Middle | 7% 19 wins | 16.9% | 0.75 vs course avg | 0.66 vs market | 58.9% | 272 |
| High (outside) | 10.3% 31 wins | 15.3% | 1.11 vs course avg | 1.68 vs market | 57.8% | 300 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 13.4% 22 wins | 20.7% | 1.23 vs course avg | 0.86 vs market | 70.8% | 164 |
| Middle | 10.6% 14 wins | 18.2% | 0.97 vs course avg | 1.23 vs market | 64.1% | 132 |
| High (outside) | 8.3% 12 wins | 16.7% | 0.76 vs course avg | 0.97 vs market | 65.6% | 144 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 13.6% 38 wins | 19.7% | 1.36 vs course avg | 1.08 vs market | 66.2% | 279 |
| Middle | 8% 18 wins | 16.4% | 0.80 vs course avg | 0.72 vs market | 64.9% | 225 |
| High (outside) | 7.9% 20 wins | 15% | 0.79 vs course avg | 1.19 vs market | 59% | 254 |
Yes, in places. Across 297 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.38); over 7-8f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.11); over 9-12f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.23); over 13f+ — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.36). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Partly. Some favoured bands at Chester show A/E below 1 (bias over-priced), others do not — the tables below show which is which.
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.