Cork draw bias

Yes, in places. Across 200 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 9-12f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.21). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.

2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 200 races · updated 9 June 2026

5-6f · 86 races

No meaningful draw bias

5-6f · 86 races · field avg win 8.1%

No meaningful draw bias

Draw	Win %	Top-3 %	IV	A/E	PRB	Runs
Low (inside)	9.2% 35 wins	14.5%	1.13 vs course avg	1.29 vs market	60.9%	379
Middle	7.8% 25 wins	14.3%	0.95 vs course avg	0.69 vs market	59.6%	322
High (outside)	7.3% 26 wins	13.8%	0.90 vs course avg	0.95 vs market	62.1%	355

7-8f · 65 races

No meaningful draw bias

7-8f · 65 races · field avg win 6.9%

No meaningful draw bias

Draw	Win %	Top-3 %	IV	A/E	PRB	Runs
Low (inside)	6.7% 22 wins	9.4%	0.96 vs course avg	0.62 vs market	59%	330
Middle	7.4% 22 wins	12.5%	1.07 vs course avg	1.44 vs market	63.5%	297
High (outside)	6.7% 21 wins	13.1%	0.97 vs course avg	1.00 vs market	63.4%	313

9-12f · 49 races

Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.21)

9-12f · 49 races · field avg win 7.9%

Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.21)

Draw	Win %	Top-3 %	IV	A/E	PRB	Runs
Low (inside)	6.2% 14 wins	10.2%	0.79 vs course avg	0.26 vs market	60.3%	225
Middle	9.5% 18 wins	13.8%	1.21 vs course avg	1.98 vs market	65.8%	189
High (outside)	8.3% 17 wins	15.5%	1.04 vs course avg	1.27 vs market	66.9%	206

Common questions

Is there a draw bias at Cork?

Does the market already price in the Cork draw bias?

Not fully. The favoured thirds at Cork hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.

What do IV, A/E and PRB mean?

IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.

Keep going

Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.