Yes, in places. Across 544 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.12); over 9-12f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.13). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 544 races · updated 9 June 2026
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 7.5% 67 wins | 12.6% | 1.03 vs course avg | 1.12 vs market | 58.1% | 895 |
| Middle | 6.1% 47 wins | 10.3% | 0.84 vs course avg | 1.05 vs market | 56.2% | 776 |
| High (outside) | 8.1% 68 wins | 15.1% | 1.12 vs course avg | 0.85 vs market | 61.5% | 839 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 6.3% 72 wins | 12% | 0.96 vs course avg | 0.92 vs market | 59.3% | 1142 |
| Middle | 6.5% 65 wins | 11.5% | 0.99 vs course avg | 0.92 vs market | 55.9% | 999 |
| High (outside) | 6.8% 74 wins | 11.2% | 1.04 vs course avg | 1.15 vs market | 57.7% | 1082 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 8.2% 49 wins | 15.9% | 1.10 vs course avg | 1.10 vs market | 63.5% | 597 |
| Middle | 8.5% 44 wins | 11.7% | 1.13 vs course avg | 0.99 vs market | 57.2% | 520 |
| High (outside) | 5.8% 33 wins | 12.3% | 0.78 vs course avg | 0.88 vs market | 55.8% | 568 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 6.5% 10 wins | 9.7% | 1.14 vs course avg | 1.83 vs market | 62.4% | 155 |
| Middle | 5.8% 8 wins | 10.1% | 1.02 vs course avg | 0.90 vs market | 56.6% | 139 |
| High (outside) | 4.7% 7 wins | 9.4% | 0.83 vs course avg | 0.00 vs market | 60.8% | 149 |
Yes, in places. Across 544 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.12); over 9-12f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.13). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Partly. Some favoured bands at Curragh show A/E below 1 (bias over-priced), others do not — the tables below show which is which.
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.