Down Royal draw bias

Not meaningfully. Across 127 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09, no distance band at Down Royal shows an IV spread big enough to call a real stall bias.

2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 127 races · updated 9 June 2026

5-6f · 30 races

Sample too small to call

5-6f · 30 races · field avg win 8.6%

Sample too small to call

Draw	Win %	Top-3 %	IV	A/E	PRB	Runs
Low (inside)	5% 6 wins	10%	0.58 vs course avg	0.77 vs market	60.2%	120
Middle	11.4% 12 wins	17.1%	1.33 vs course avg	1.06 vs market	66.8%	105
High (outside)	9.7% 11 wins	16.8%	1.13 vs course avg	1.20 vs market	62.2%	113

7-8f · 37 races

Sample too small to call

7-8f · 37 races · field avg win 7.3%

Sample too small to call

Draw	Win %	Top-3 %	IV	A/E	PRB	Runs
Low (inside)	6% 11 wins	13%	0.82 vs course avg	0.61 vs market	60.2%	184
Middle	9.9% 15 wins	13.9%	1.36 vs course avg	1.62 vs market	57.8%	151
High (outside)	6.4% 11 wins	14.5%	0.87 vs course avg	0.93 vs market	63.5%	173

9-12f · 27 races

Sample too small to call

9-12f · 27 races · field avg win 8.2%

Sample too small to call

Draw	Win %	Top-3 %	IV	A/E	PRB	Runs
Low (inside)	4.2% 5 wins	11.9%	0.52 vs course avg	0.60 vs market	61%	118
Middle	8% 8 wins	13%	0.98 vs course avg	0.84 vs market	58%	100
High (outside)	12.4% 14 wins	19.5%	1.52 vs course avg	1.74 vs market	65.6%	113

13f+ · 33 races

Sample too small to call

13f+ · 33 races · field avg win 8.4%

Sample too small to call

Draw	Win %	Top-3 %	IV	A/E	PRB	Runs
Low (inside)	7.8% 11 wins	16.3%	0.92 vs course avg	0.84 vs market	62.9%	141
Middle	11% 13 wins	17.8%	1.31 vs course avg	1.49 vs market	64.3%	118
High (outside)	6.8% 9 wins	11.4%	0.81 vs course avg	0.68 vs market	66.4%	132

Common questions

Is there a draw bias at Down Royal?

Not meaningfully. Across 127 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09, no distance band at Down Royal shows an IV spread big enough to call a real stall bias.

Does the market already price in the Down Royal draw bias?

With no strong bias to price, stall position at Down Royal is rarely a value angle either way — judge each race on pace and ability.

What do IV, A/E and PRB mean?

IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.

Keep going

Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.