Epsom draw bias

Yes, in places. Across 208 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 9-12f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.14). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.

2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 208 races · updated 9 June 2026

5-6f · 27 races

Sample too small to call

5-6f · 27 races · field avg win 8%

Sample too small to call

Draw	Win %	Top-3 %	IV	A/E	PRB	Runs
Low (inside)	8.1% 10 wins	14.6%	1.02 vs course avg	1.31 vs market	59.2%	123
Middle	7.8% 8 wins	10.8%	0.98 vs course avg	0.83 vs market	48.6%	102
High (outside)	8% 9 wins	19.5%	1.00 vs course avg	0.87 vs market	65.9%	113

7-8f · 62 races

No meaningful draw bias

7-8f · 62 races · field avg win 11.3%

No meaningful draw bias

Draw	Win %	Top-3 %	IV	A/E	PRB	Runs
Low (inside)	10.7% 22 wins	15.6%	0.95 vs course avg	0.90 vs market	58.5%	205
Middle	10.2% 17 wins	22.8%	0.90 vs course avg	1.05 vs market	66.5%	167
High (outside)	12.8% 23 wins	20.1%	1.14 vs course avg	1.06 vs market	61.8%	179

9-12f · 119 races

Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.14)

9-12f · 119 races · field avg win 10.5%

Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.14)

Draw	Win %	Top-3 %	IV	A/E	PRB	Runs
Low (inside)	10.4% 43 wins	19%	0.99 vs course avg	0.91 vs market	62.2%	415
Middle	9.1% 31 wins	15.8%	0.87 vs course avg	0.86 vs market	56.9%	341
High (outside)	11.9% 45 wins	20.2%	1.14 vs course avg	1.24 vs market	62.4%	377

Common questions

Is there a draw bias at Epsom?

Does the market already price in the Epsom draw bias?

Not fully. The favoured thirds at Epsom hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.

What do IV, A/E and PRB mean?

IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.

Keep going

Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.