Is there a draw bias at Fairyhouse?
Yes, in places. Across 117 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.10). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Fairyhouse draw bias
Yes, in places. Across 117 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.10). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 117 races · updated 9 June 2026
5-6f · 47 races
Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.10)5-6f · 47 races · field avg win 7.6%
Moderate: high (outside) favoured (IV 1.10)
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 8.1% 18 wins | 15.8% | 1.08 vs course avg | 1.03 vs market | 63.8% | 221 |
| Middle | 6.2% 12 wins | 12.3% | 0.81 vs course avg | 0.66 vs market | 61% | 195 |
| High (outside) | 8.3% 17 wins | 13.7% | 1.10 vs course avg | 1.34 vs market | 58.1% | 205 |
7-8f · 36 races
Sample too small to call7-8f · 36 races · field avg win 7.5%
Sample too small to call
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 7.6% 13 wins | 17.4% | 1.01 vs course avg | 0.95 vs market | 63.4% | 172 |
| Middle | 8.7% 13 wins | 14.7% | 1.16 vs course avg | 0.85 vs market | 60.6% | 150 |
| High (outside) | 6.2% 10 wins | 10% | 0.84 vs course avg | 1.26 vs market | 49.9% | 160 |
9-12f · 34 races
Sample too small to call9-12f · 34 races · field avg win 7.3%
Sample too small to call
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.5% 16 wins | 15.5% | 1.30 vs course avg | 1.45 vs market | 67.1% | 168 |
| Middle | 5.5% 8 wins | 10.3% | 0.75 vs course avg | 0.55 vs market | 57.9% | 145 |
| High (outside) | 6.7% 10 wins | 12.7% | 0.91 vs course avg | 0.83 vs market | 56.4% | 150 |
Common questions
Does the market already price in the Fairyhouse draw bias?
Not fully. The favoured thirds at Fairyhouse hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.
What do IV, A/E and PRB mean?
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Keep going
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.