Is there a draw bias at Ffos Las?
Yes, in places. Across 139 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.27). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Ffos Las draw bias
Yes, in places. Across 139 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.27). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 139 races · updated 9 June 2026
5-6f · 40 races
Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.27)5-6f · 40 races · field avg win 12.2%
Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.27)
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.9% 12 wins | 18.2% | 0.81 vs course avg | 1.33 vs market | 57.2% | 121 |
| Middle | 15.5% 15 wins | 26.8% | 1.27 vs course avg | 0.68 vs market | 67% | 97 |
| High (outside) | 11.8% 13 wins | 23.6% | 0.97 vs course avg | 0.88 vs market | 65.4% | 110 |
7-8f · 56 races
No meaningful draw bias7-8f · 56 races · field avg win 11%
No meaningful draw bias
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 10% 19 wins | 17.4% | 0.91 vs course avg | 1.55 vs market | 53.5% | 190 |
| Middle | 11.8% 18 wins | 23% | 1.08 vs course avg | 0.99 vs market | 61.7% | 152 |
| High (outside) | 11.2% 19 wins | 26% | 1.03 vs course avg | 0.56 vs market | 65.7% | 169 |
9-12f · 43 races
No meaningful draw bias9-12f · 43 races · field avg win 12.2%
No meaningful draw bias
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 11.6% 15 wins | 25.6% | 0.95 vs course avg | 1.36 vs market | 60% | 129 |
| Middle | 12.4% 13 wins | 23.8% | 1.01 vs course avg | 1.03 vs market | 62.4% | 105 |
| High (outside) | 12.7% 15 wins | 26.3% | 1.04 vs course avg | 0.60 vs market | 60.6% | 118 |
Common questions
Does the market already price in the Ffos Las draw bias?
Largely, yes. Every favoured third at Ffos Las shows A/E below 1 — the market over-bets the famous stalls, so blindly backing the bias has lost money against Betfair prices.
What do IV, A/E and PRB mean?
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Keep going
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.