Question 1

Is there a draw bias at Galway?

Accepted Answer

Yes, in places. Across 119 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 7-8f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.54); over 9-12f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.34). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.

Question 2

Does the market already price in the Galway draw bias?

Accepted Answer

Largely, yes. Every favoured third at Galway shows A/E below 1 — the market over-bets the famous stalls, so blindly backing the bias has lost money against Betfair prices.

Question 3

What do IV, A/E and PRB mean?

Accepted Answer

IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.

Draw	Win %	Top-3 %	IV	A/E	PRB	Runs
Low (inside)	10.6% 27 wins	16.9%	1.54 vs course avg	0.90 vs market	69.7%	254
Middle	2.3% 5 wins	4.5%	0.33 vs course avg	1.23 vs market	54%	220
High (outside)	7.2% 17 wins	12.8%	1.05 vs course avg	1.03 vs market	64.2%	235

Draw	Win %	Top-3 %	IV	A/E	PRB	Runs
Low (inside)	8.5% 33 wins	14.9%	1.34 vs course avg	0.92 vs market	67.3%	388
Middle	5.2% 19 wins	8.8%	0.82 vs course avg	0.64 vs market	58.9%	363
High (outside)	5.2% 19 wins	7.1%	0.81 vs course avg	1.55 vs market	56.5%	368

Galway draw bias

7-8f · 49 races

9-12f · 70 races

Common questions

Is there a draw bias at Galway?

Does the market already price in the Galway draw bias?

What do IV, A/E and PRB mean?

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