Yes, in places. Across 367 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.33); over 7-8f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.15); over 9-12f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.19); over 13f+ — strong: middle favoured (iv 1.29). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 367 races · updated 9 June 2026
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 12.6% 54 wins | 18.6% | 1.33 vs course avg | 1.34 vs market | 63% | 429 |
| Middle | 9.1% 32 wins | 18.1% | 0.96 vs course avg | 1.03 vs market | 61.1% | 353 |
| High (outside) | 6.3% 24 wins | 14.7% | 0.66 vs course avg | 0.51 vs market | 56.6% | 382 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.9% 43 wins | 16.7% | 1.15 vs course avg | 1.01 vs market | 62.7% | 436 |
| Middle | 9.2% 34 wins | 15.9% | 1.07 vs course avg | 1.25 vs market | 64.4% | 370 |
| High (outside) | 6.6% 27 wins | 11.7% | 0.77 vs course avg | 0.70 vs market | 58% | 409 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 8.4% 31 wins | 18.1% | 0.82 vs course avg | 0.97 vs market | 58.3% | 370 |
| Middle | 12.1% 37 wins | 19.3% | 1.19 vs course avg | 1.14 vs market | 59.7% | 306 |
| High (outside) | 10.4% 35 wins | 18.6% | 1.02 vs course avg | 0.90 vs market | 59.9% | 338 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 10.5% 16 wins | 21.7% | 1.04 vs course avg | 1.30 vs market | 62.2% | 152 |
| Middle | 13% 16 wins | 22.8% | 1.29 vs course avg | 1.42 vs market | 68.5% | 123 |
| High (outside) | 7.1% 10 wins | 10.6% | 0.70 vs course avg | 0.31 vs market | 54.4% | 141 |
Yes, in places. Across 367 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.33); over 7-8f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.15); over 9-12f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.19); over 13f+ — strong: middle favoured (iv 1.29). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Not fully. The favoured thirds at Goodwood hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.