Question 1

Is there a draw bias at Gowran Park?

Accepted Answer

Yes, in places. Across 240 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 7-8f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.38); over 9-12f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.13). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.

Question 2

Does the market already price in the Gowran Park draw bias?

Accepted Answer

Not fully. The favoured thirds at Gowran Park hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.

Question 3

What do IV, A/E and PRB mean?

Accepted Answer

IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.

Draw	Win %	Top-3 %	IV	A/E	PRB	Runs
Low (inside)	10% 72 wins	17.3%	1.38 vs course avg	1.04 vs market	66.9%	721
Middle	6% 37 wins	11.3%	0.82 vs course avg	1.21 vs market	59.3%	619
High (outside)	5.5% 36 wins	9.1%	0.75 vs course avg	0.73 vs market	54.8%	657

Draw	Win %	Top-3 %	IV	A/E	PRB	Runs
Low (inside)	8.4% 38 wins	15.6%	1.11 vs course avg	1.14 vs market	65%	455
Middle	5.5% 21 wins	11.9%	0.73 vs course avg	0.64 vs market	62.2%	385
High (outside)	8.5% 36 wins	13.1%	1.13 vs course avg	1.14 vs market	59.3%	426

Gowran Park draw bias

7-8f · 145 races

9-12f · 95 races

Common questions

Is there a draw bias at Gowran Park?

Does the market already price in the Gowran Park draw bias?

What do IV, A/E and PRB mean?

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