Yes, in places. Across 411 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.22); over 7-8f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.24); over 9-12f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.20). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 411 races · updated 9 June 2026
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 11.8% 51 wins | 18.7% | 1.22 vs course avg | 1.27 vs market | 60.5% | 433 |
| Middle | 6.8% 24 wins | 13.4% | 0.71 vs course avg | 0.61 vs market | 56.8% | 352 |
| High (outside) | 9.8% 39 wins | 19.6% | 1.02 vs course avg | 1.00 vs market | 62.3% | 397 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 12.9% 80 wins | 22.8% | 1.24 vs course avg | 1.24 vs market | 68% | 619 |
| Middle | 8.2% 42 wins | 15.3% | 0.79 vs course avg | 0.68 vs market | 60.8% | 511 |
| High (outside) | 9.6% 54 wins | 14.8% | 0.93 vs course avg | 0.95 vs market | 56.8% | 560 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 13.1% 39 wins | 22.5% | 1.20 vs course avg | 1.23 vs market | 65.9% | 298 |
| Middle | 9.2% 22 wins | 17.2% | 0.85 vs course avg | 0.85 vs market | 59.6% | 239 |
| High (outside) | 9.8% 26 wins | 17.8% | 0.91 vs course avg | 0.73 vs market | 58.5% | 264 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 11.8% 14 wins | 19.3% | 1.16 vs course avg | 1.38 vs market | 58.9% | 119 |
| Middle | 9.6% 9 wins | 13.8% | 0.94 vs course avg | 0.89 vs market | 62% | 94 |
| High (outside) | 9% 10 wins | 22.5% | 0.88 vs course avg | 0.67 vs market | 63.2% | 111 |
Yes, in places. Across 411 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.22); over 7-8f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.24); over 9-12f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.20). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Not fully. The favoured thirds at Haydock hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.