Yes, in places. Across 1,227 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.33); over 7-8f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.17); over 9-12f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.21); over 13f+ — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.35). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 1,227 races · updated 9 June 2026
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 13.2% 120 wins | 20.8% | 1.33 vs course avg | 1.03 vs market | 67.4% | 908 |
| Middle | 8.8% 69 wins | 16% | 0.89 vs course avg | 1.02 vs market | 61.6% | 782 |
| High (outside) | 7.3% 62 wins | 12.2% | 0.74 vs course avg | 0.91 vs market | 55.1% | 845 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.6% 253 wins | 16.3% | 1.05 vs course avg | 0.92 vs market | 61.9% | 2631 |
| Middle | 10.7% 231 wins | 17.7% | 1.17 vs course avg | 1.04 vs market | 63.9% | 2155 |
| High (outside) | 7.3% 178 wins | 12.5% | 0.80 vs course avg | 1.06 vs market | 56% | 2441 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.7% 88 wins | 17.1% | 0.99 vs course avg | 0.79 vs market | 63.3% | 911 |
| Middle | 11.8% 87 wins | 18.1% | 1.21 vs course avg | 1.30 vs market | 62.6% | 739 |
| High (outside) | 8% 67 wins | 12.4% | 0.83 vs course avg | 0.97 vs market | 57.6% | 833 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 14.6% 34 wins | 19.3% | 1.35 vs course avg | 1.18 vs market | 69.6% | 233 |
| Middle | 8.5% 16 wins | 13.8% | 0.78 vs course avg | 0.92 vs market | 57.2% | 189 |
| High (outside) | 8.8% 19 wins | 16.7% | 0.82 vs course avg | 0.87 vs market | 65.6% | 215 |
Yes, in places. Across 1,227 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.33); over 7-8f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.17); over 9-12f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.21); over 13f+ — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.35). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Not fully. The favoured thirds at Kempton (AW) hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.