Is there a draw bias at Killarney?
Yes, in places. Across 99 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 7-8f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.24). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Killarney draw bias
Yes, in places. Across 99 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 7-8f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.24). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 99 races · updated 9 June 2026
7-8f · 72 races
Strong: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.24)7-8f · 72 races · field avg win 8.6%
Strong: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.24)
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 10.7% 32 wins | 16.7% | 1.24 vs course avg | 1.16 vs market | 68.7% | 300 |
| Middle | 9.6% 25 wins | 15.7% | 1.12 vs course avg | 0.99 vs market | 68.1% | 261 |
| High (outside) | 5.4% 15 wins | 10.4% | 0.63 vs course avg | 0.72 vs market | 55.6% | 278 |
9-12f · 27 races
Sample too small to call9-12f · 27 races · field avg win 8.9%
Sample too small to call
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 10.9% 12 wins | 18.2% | 1.22 vs course avg | 0.79 vs market | 67.7% | 110 |
| Middle | 10.8% 10 wins | 17.2% | 1.21 vs course avg | 0.94 vs market | 71.1% | 93 |
| High (outside) | 5% 5 wins | 9% | 0.56 vs course avg | 1.32 vs market | 49.3% | 100 |
Common questions
Does the market already price in the Killarney draw bias?
Not fully. The favoured thirds at Killarney hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.
What do IV, A/E and PRB mean?
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Keep going
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.