Leicester draw bias

Yes, in places. Across 349 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 7-8f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.17). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.

2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 349 races · updated 9 June 2026

5-6f · 111 races

No meaningful draw bias

5-6f · 111 races · field avg win 10.1%

No meaningful draw bias

Draw	Win %	Top-3 %	IV	A/E	PRB	Runs
Low (inside)	11.4% 46 wins	21.2%	1.13 vs course avg	0.89 vs market	64%	405
Middle	9.4% 31 wins	20.3%	0.93 vs course avg	0.90 vs market	60.3%	330
High (outside)	9.2% 34 wins	15.2%	0.92 vs course avg	1.28 vs market	52.8%	368

7-8f · 148 races

Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.17)

7-8f · 148 races · field avg win 10.3%

Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.17)

Draw	Win %	Top-3 %	IV	A/E	PRB	Runs
Low (inside)	10.7% 57 wins	21.5%	1.03 vs course avg	0.88 vs market	62.7%	534
Middle	12.1% 52 wins	19.5%	1.17 vs course avg	1.10 vs market	62.4%	431
High (outside)	8.3% 39 wins	14.3%	0.81 vs course avg	1.07 vs market	53.9%	469

9-12f · 90 races

No meaningful draw bias

9-12f · 90 races · field avg win 10.7%

No meaningful draw bias

Draw	Win %	Top-3 %	IV	A/E	PRB	Runs
Low (inside)	9.8% 30 wins	21.2%	0.91 vs course avg	0.65 vs market	63.2%	307
Middle	11.4% 29 wins	17.7%	1.07 vs course avg	0.94 vs market	61.2%	254
High (outside)	11.1% 31 wins	18.6%	1.03 vs course avg	1.50 vs market	58.9%	280

Common questions

Is there a draw bias at Leicester?

Does the market already price in the Leicester draw bias?

Not fully. The favoured thirds at Leicester hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.

What do IV, A/E and PRB mean?

IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.

Keep going

Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.