Yes, in places. Across 326 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 7-8f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.16); over 9-12f — strong: middle favoured (iv 1.24). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 326 races · updated 9 June 2026
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.2% 75 wins | 16.3% | 1.16 vs course avg | 1.19 vs market | 66.1% | 816 |
| Middle | 7% 48 wins | 10.2% | 0.88 vs course avg | 0.85 vs market | 56.3% | 686 |
| High (outside) | 7.5% 56 wins | 12.3% | 0.94 vs course avg | 0.91 vs market | 62.6% | 749 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 8.7% 45 wins | 16.2% | 1.12 vs course avg | 1.12 vs market | 63.9% | 519 |
| Middle | 9.6% 43 wins | 13.8% | 1.24 vs course avg | 0.90 vs market | 62.6% | 449 |
| High (outside) | 5% 24 wins | 9.5% | 0.64 vs course avg | 0.96 vs market | 56.9% | 483 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.9% 14 wins | 12.8% | 1.18 vs course avg | 1.53 vs market | 59.5% | 141 |
| Middle | 7.5% 9 wins | 16.7% | 0.89 vs course avg | 0.82 vs market | 62.3% | 120 |
| High (outside) | 7.6% 10 wins | 13.7% | 0.91 vs course avg | 0.53 vs market | 65% | 131 |
Yes, in places. Across 326 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 7-8f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.16); over 9-12f — strong: middle favoured (iv 1.24). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Partly. Some favoured bands at Leopardstown show A/E below 1 (bias over-priced), others do not — the tables below show which is which.
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.