Is there a draw bias at Limerick?
Yes, in places. Across 56 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 7-8f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.24). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Limerick draw bias
Yes, in places. Across 56 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 7-8f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.24). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 56 races · updated 9 June 2026
7-8f · 56 races
Strong: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.24)7-8f · 56 races · field avg win 7.7%
Strong: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.24)
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.5% 25 wins | 15.6% | 1.24 vs course avg | 0.97 vs market | 60.9% | 263 |
| Middle | 4.8% 11 wins | 10.6% | 0.63 vs course avg | 0.75 vs market | 59.6% | 227 |
| High (outside) | 8.3% 20 wins | 12.1% | 1.09 vs course avg | 1.24 vs market | 61% | 240 |
Common questions
Does the market already price in the Limerick draw bias?
Not fully. The favoured thirds at Limerick hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.
What do IV, A/E and PRB mean?
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Keep going
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.