Yes, in places. Across 1,010 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 7-8f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.15); over 9-12f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.25); over 13f+ — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.23). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 1,010 races · updated 9 June 2026
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 10.7% 102 wins | 19.4% | 0.96 vs course avg | 0.97 vs market | 59.9% | 954 |
| Middle | 11.5% 90 wins | 21.3% | 1.03 vs course avg | 1.06 vs market | 62.3% | 783 |
| High (outside) | 11.5% 98 wins | 19.5% | 1.02 vs course avg | 1.00 vs market | 62.4% | 855 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 7.9% 114 wins | 17.6% | 0.77 vs course avg | 0.87 vs market | 58.1% | 1435 |
| Middle | 11.4% 138 wins | 18.7% | 1.11 vs course avg | 1.11 vs market | 59% | 1211 |
| High (outside) | 11.8% 157 wins | 19.4% | 1.15 vs course avg | 1.01 vs market | 61.4% | 1330 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 8.3% 75 wins | 13.2% | 0.82 vs course avg | 1.07 vs market | 55.6% | 906 |
| Middle | 12.6% 95 wins | 20.8% | 1.25 vs course avg | 1.13 vs market | 64.2% | 755 |
| High (outside) | 9.8% 82 wins | 17.5% | 0.97 vs course avg | 0.84 vs market | 63.2% | 839 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 8.4% 18 wins | 15.9% | 0.81 vs course avg | 0.76 vs market | 57.3% | 214 |
| Middle | 12.8% 23 wins | 20% | 1.23 vs course avg | 1.10 vs market | 67.2% | 180 |
| High (outside) | 10.4% 20 wins | 17.1% | 1.00 vs course avg | 1.16 vs market | 59.9% | 193 |
Yes, in places. Across 1,010 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 7-8f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.15); over 9-12f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.25); over 13f+ — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.23). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Not fully. The favoured thirds at Lingfield (AW) hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.