Is there a draw bias at Listowel?
Yes, in places. Across 51 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 7-8f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.20). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Listowel draw bias
Yes, in places. Across 51 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 7-8f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.20). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 51 races · updated 9 June 2026
7-8f · 51 races
Moderate: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.20)7-8f · 51 races · field avg win 7.9%
Moderate: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.20)
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.5% 22 wins | 15.9% | 1.20 vs course avg | 1.47 vs market | 67.2% | 232 |
| Middle | 8.1% 16 wins | 14.1% | 1.02 vs course avg | 0.79 vs market | 63.5% | 198 |
| High (outside) | 6.1% 13 wins | 10.3% | 0.77 vs course avg | 0.57 vs market | 59.9% | 214 |
Common questions
Does the market already price in the Listowel draw bias?
Not fully. The favoured thirds at Listowel hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.
What do IV, A/E and PRB mean?
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Keep going
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.