Yes, in places. Across 299 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.25); over 7-8f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.20); over 13f+ — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.17). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 299 races · updated 9 June 2026
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.6% 30 wins | 19.4% | 0.89 vs course avg | 0.87 vs market | 60% | 314 |
| Middle | 9.1% 23 wins | 14.7% | 0.85 vs course avg | 1.01 vs market | 59.4% | 252 |
| High (outside) | 13.4% 38 wins | 21.5% | 1.25 vs course avg | 1.10 vs market | 64.1% | 284 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.2% 39 wins | 20.2% | 0.85 vs course avg | 0.89 vs market | 61.6% | 426 |
| Middle | 10.5% 37 wins | 18.4% | 0.97 vs course avg | 0.98 vs market | 58% | 353 |
| High (outside) | 13% 50 wins | 20.1% | 1.20 vs course avg | 1.14 vs market | 60.4% | 384 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 11.8% 10 wins | 18.8% | 0.98 vs course avg | 0.99 vs market | 55.4% | 85 |
| Middle | 14.3% 10 wins | 27.1% | 1.19 vs course avg | 1.03 vs market | 65.5% | 70 |
| High (outside) | 10.1% 8 wins | 21.5% | 0.85 vs course avg | 0.98 vs market | 58.3% | 79 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 13.6% 23 wins | 23.1% | 1.17 vs course avg | 1.06 vs market | 66.4% | 169 |
| Middle | 7.4% 10 wins | 17.8% | 0.64 vs course avg | 0.76 vs market | 52% | 135 |
| High (outside) | 13.1% 20 wins | 22.2% | 1.13 vs course avg | 1.17 vs market | 62.4% | 153 |
Yes, in places. Across 299 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.25); over 7-8f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.20); over 13f+ — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.17). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Not fully. The favoured thirds at Musselburgh hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.