Naas draw bias

Yes, in places. Across 258 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 7-8f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.14). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.

2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 258 races · updated 9 June 2026

5-6f · 125 races

No meaningful draw bias

5-6f · 125 races · field avg win 7.7%

No meaningful draw bias

Draw	Win %	Top-3 %	IV	A/E	PRB	Runs
Low (inside)	8.5% 48 wins	14.2%	1.10 vs course avg	0.91 vs market	60.3%	565
Middle	7.1% 35 wins	12.3%	0.92 vs course avg	0.99 vs market	57.8%	494
High (outside)	7.5% 40 wins	13.1%	0.97 vs course avg	1.11 vs market	59.2%	536

7-8f · 96 races

Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.14)

7-8f · 96 races · field avg win 7.5%

Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.14)

Draw	Win %	Top-3 %	IV	A/E	PRB	Runs
Low (inside)	7.7% 35 wins	13.6%	1.03 vs course avg	0.81 vs market	61.2%	455
Middle	8.5% 33 wins	12.8%	1.14 vs course avg	1.21 vs market	63.9%	390
High (outside)	6.2% 26 wins	10.6%	0.84 vs course avg	1.06 vs market	58.7%	416

9-12f · 37 races

Sample too small to call

9-12f · 37 races · field avg win 7.4%

Sample too small to call

Draw	Win %	Top-3 %	IV	A/E	PRB	Runs
Low (inside)	4.7% 8 wins	11.1%	0.63 vs course avg	0.44 vs market	55.4%	171
Middle	8.6% 12 wins	12.9%	1.16 vs course avg	2.01 vs market	63.2%	140
High (outside)	9.5% 14 wins	15.5%	1.28 vs course avg	0.89 vs market	65.6%	148

Common questions

Is there a draw bias at Naas?

Does the market already price in the Naas draw bias?

Not fully. The favoured thirds at Naas hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.

What do IV, A/E and PRB mean?

IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.

Keep going

Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.