Yes, in places. Across 373 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.13); over 9-12f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.23). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 373 races · updated 9 June 2026
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.3% 33 wins | 15.5% | 1.04 vs course avg | 1.10 vs market | 62.8% | 354 |
| Middle | 7.1% 21 wins | 14.6% | 0.80 vs course avg | 0.69 vs market | 61.8% | 294 |
| High (outside) | 10.1% 33 wins | 13.8% | 1.13 vs course avg | 1.18 vs market | 59.7% | 327 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 10.1% 76 wins | 15.8% | 1.08 vs course avg | 1.05 vs market | 61.3% | 751 |
| Middle | 8.1% 51 wins | 13.8% | 0.87 vs course avg | 0.87 vs market | 59.1% | 629 |
| High (outside) | 9.7% 66 wins | 15.7% | 1.04 vs course avg | 1.05 vs market | 64.3% | 680 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 7.8% 26 wins | 14.4% | 0.77 vs course avg | 0.78 vs market | 58.6% | 334 |
| Middle | 12.5% 35 wins | 19.6% | 1.23 vs course avg | 1.20 vs market | 65.7% | 281 |
| High (outside) | 10.5% 32 wins | 16.4% | 1.04 vs course avg | 1.04 vs market | 62.4% | 304 |
Yes, in places. Across 373 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.13); over 9-12f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.23). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Not fully. The favoured thirds at Newmarket hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.