Yes, in places. Across 318 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.24); over 9-12f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.30). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 318 races · updated 9 June 2026
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.1% 32 wins | 16% | 0.95 vs course avg | 1.13 vs market | 59.6% | 351 |
| Middle | 7.6% 22 wins | 12.2% | 0.80 vs course avg | 0.78 vs market | 57.3% | 288 |
| High (outside) | 11.9% 38 wins | 19.4% | 1.24 vs course avg | 1.06 vs market | 67.9% | 319 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 10% 56 wins | 18.5% | 0.91 vs course avg | 0.88 vs market | 67.2% | 561 |
| Middle | 11.6% 53 wins | 17.1% | 1.06 vs course avg | 1.10 vs market | 65% | 455 |
| High (outside) | 11.5% 58 wins | 16.5% | 1.05 vs course avg | 1.03 vs market | 62.5% | 504 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 10.5% 20 wins | 16.2% | 0.91 vs course avg | 0.99 vs market | 65.2% | 191 |
| Middle | 14.9% 23 wins | 20.8% | 1.30 vs course avg | 1.22 vs market | 68.7% | 154 |
| High (outside) | 9.5% 16 wins | 15.4% | 0.82 vs course avg | 0.82 vs market | 68.1% | 169 |
Yes, in places. Across 318 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.24); over 9-12f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.30). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Not fully. The favoured thirds at Newmarket (July) hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.