Yes, in places. Across 280 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.19); over 7-8f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.29); over 9-12f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.50). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 280 races · updated 9 June 2026
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 10.2% 53 wins | 19.6% | 0.98 vs course avg | 0.87 vs market | 61.5% | 520 |
| Middle | 12.4% 52 wins | 21.1% | 1.19 vs course avg | 1.12 vs market | 64% | 421 |
| High (outside) | 8.8% 42 wins | 15.3% | 0.85 vs course avg | 1.07 vs market | 57.5% | 478 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 13.9% 32 wins | 21.7% | 1.29 vs course avg | 1.01 vs market | 65.8% | 230 |
| Middle | 9.1% 18 wins | 17.3% | 0.85 vs course avg | 0.71 vs market | 62.5% | 197 |
| High (outside) | 8.9% 19 wins | 15.5% | 0.83 vs course avg | 1.32 vs market | 57.4% | 213 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 16.7% 35 wins | 22.5% | 1.50 vs course avg | 1.17 vs market | 67.8% | 209 |
| Middle | 11% 19 wins | 22.1% | 0.99 vs course avg | 1.06 vs market | 65.6% | 172 |
| High (outside) | 5.2% 10 wins | 13% | 0.47 vs course avg | 0.62 vs market | 54.6% | 192 |
Yes, in places. Across 280 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.19); over 7-8f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.29); over 9-12f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.50). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Not fully. The favoured thirds at Pontefract hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.