Is there a draw bias at Redcar?
Not meaningfully. Across 308 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09, no distance band at Redcar shows an IV spread big enough to call a real stall bias.
Redcar draw bias
Not meaningfully. Across 308 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09, no distance band at Redcar shows an IV spread big enough to call a real stall bias.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 308 races · updated 9 June 2026
5-6f · 125 races
No meaningful draw bias5-6f · 125 races · field avg win 9%
No meaningful draw bias
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.2% 46 wins | 17.3% | 1.02 vs course avg | 0.97 vs market | 58.8% | 502 |
| Middle | 8.8% 37 wins | 16.9% | 0.98 vs course avg | 0.81 vs market | 59% | 420 |
| High (outside) | 8.9% 41 wins | 16.5% | 0.99 vs course avg | 1.23 vs market | 58.7% | 460 |
7-8f · 127 races
No meaningful draw bias7-8f · 127 races · field avg win 9.7%
No meaningful draw bias
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 10.3% 49 wins | 19% | 1.06 vs course avg | 0.99 vs market | 59.5% | 478 |
| Middle | 9.5% 38 wins | 17.7% | 0.98 vs course avg | 0.99 vs market | 58.5% | 402 |
| High (outside) | 9.2% 40 wins | 16.4% | 0.95 vs course avg | 1.03 vs market | 58.8% | 434 |
9-12f · 56 races
No meaningful draw bias9-12f · 56 races · field avg win 10%
No meaningful draw bias
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 11.2% 23 wins | 23.9% | 1.12 vs course avg | 0.87 vs market | 65.9% | 205 |
| Middle | 9.6% 16 wins | 18.7% | 0.96 vs course avg | 1.43 vs market | 55.4% | 166 |
| High (outside) | 9.1% 17 wins | 15.5% | 0.91 vs course avg | 0.81 vs market | 53.7% | 187 |
Common questions
Does the market already price in the Redcar draw bias?
With no strong bias to price, stall position at Redcar is rarely a value angle either way — judge each race on pace and ability.
What do IV, A/E and PRB mean?
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Keep going
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.