Yes, in places. Across 245 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.14); over 7-8f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.16); over 9-12f — strong: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.39). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 245 races · updated 9 June 2026
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 10.2% 33 wins | 17.5% | 0.97 vs course avg | 0.82 vs market | 63.9% | 325 |
| Middle | 9.2% 25 wins | 16.2% | 0.88 vs course avg | 0.89 vs market | 58.1% | 271 |
| High (outside) | 11.9% 35 wins | 18% | 1.14 vs course avg | 1.29 vs market | 62.2% | 295 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.5% 29 wins | 18.8% | 0.89 vs course avg | 0.93 vs market | 64.5% | 304 |
| Middle | 12.4% 31 wins | 18.7% | 1.16 vs course avg | 1.10 vs market | 66% | 251 |
| High (outside) | 10.4% 29 wins | 16.2% | 0.98 vs course avg | 1.00 vs market | 61.1% | 278 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 8.8% 17 wins | 14.5% | 0.74 vs course avg | 0.87 vs market | 58.8% | 193 |
| Middle | 10.3% 16 wins | 19.4% | 0.87 vs course avg | 0.65 vs market | 66.7% | 155 |
| High (outside) | 16.5% 29 wins | 26.1% | 1.39 vs course avg | 1.52 vs market | 67.1% | 176 |
Yes, in places. Across 245 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.14); over 7-8f — moderate: middle favoured (iv 1.16); over 9-12f — strong: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.39). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Not fully. The favoured thirds at Salisbury hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.