Yes, in places. Across 240 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.18); over 7-8f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.10); over 9-12f — strong: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.35). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 240 races · updated 9 June 2026
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 13% 23 wins | 21.5% | 1.18 vs course avg | 1.03 vs market | 67.1% | 177 |
| Middle | 7% 10 wins | 16.2% | 0.64 vs course avg | 0.72 vs market | 58.5% | 142 |
| High (outside) | 12.3% 20 wins | 18.5% | 1.12 vs course avg | 1.20 vs market | 63.3% | 162 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 11.4% 47 wins | 18.2% | 1.10 vs course avg | 1.51 vs market | 67.5% | 413 |
| Middle | 8.7% 29 wins | 15.6% | 0.85 vs course avg | 0.45 vs market | 60.4% | 333 |
| High (outside) | 10.5% 39 wins | 18.4% | 1.02 vs course avg | 0.93 vs market | 63.1% | 370 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.4% 24 wins | 17.7% | 0.91 vs course avg | 1.04 vs market | 63% | 254 |
| Middle | 7.6% 16 wins | 15.7% | 0.73 vs course avg | 0.96 vs market | 60.5% | 210 |
| High (outside) | 14% 32 wins | 20.2% | 1.35 vs course avg | 0.98 vs market | 66.6% | 228 |
Yes, in places. Across 240 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.18); over 7-8f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.10); over 9-12f — strong: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.35). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Not fully. The favoured thirds at Sandown hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.