Yes, in places. Across 327 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.22); over 7-8f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.16). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 327 races · updated 9 June 2026
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 6.4% 43 wins | 11.1% | 0.73 vs course avg | 0.69 vs market | 53.6% | 673 |
| Middle | 9.5% 54 wins | 16% | 1.08 vs course avg | 1.05 vs market | 60.6% | 570 |
| High (outside) | 10.7% 66 wins | 17.8% | 1.22 vs course avg | 1.20 vs market | 64.1% | 618 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 7.6% 38 wins | 14% | 0.82 vs course avg | 0.89 vs market | 55.6% | 501 |
| Middle | 9.6% 41 wins | 14.3% | 1.04 vs course avg | 1.08 vs market | 62% | 428 |
| High (outside) | 10.7% 49 wins | 19% | 1.16 vs course avg | 1.04 vs market | 65.7% | 457 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 7.4% 9 wins | 13.2% | 0.71 vs course avg | 0.74 vs market | 55% | 121 |
| Middle | 15.7% 16 wins | 21.6% | 1.49 vs course avg | 1.51 vs market | 65.3% | 102 |
| High (outside) | 9.2% 10 wins | 19.3% | 0.87 vs course avg | 0.79 vs market | 63.4% | 109 |
Yes, in places. Across 327 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.22); over 7-8f — moderate: high (outside) favoured (iv 1.16). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Not fully. The favoured thirds at Thirsk hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.