Question 1

Is there a draw bias at Tipperary?

Accepted Answer

Not meaningfully. Across 61 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09, no distance band at Tipperary shows an IV spread big enough to call a real stall bias.

Question 2

Does the market already price in the Tipperary draw bias?

Accepted Answer

With no strong bias to price, stall position at Tipperary is rarely a value angle either way — judge each race on pace and ability.

Question 3

What do IV, A/E and PRB mean?

Accepted Answer

IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.

Draw	Win %	Top-3 %	IV	A/E	PRB	Runs
Low (inside)	7% 8 wins	13.2%	0.74 vs course avg	0.62 vs market	58.3%	114
Middle	9.3% 9 wins	14.4%	0.98 vs course avg	1.42 vs market	68.5%	97
High (outside)	12.4% 13 wins	18.1%	1.30 vs course avg	0.88 vs market	68.7%	105

Draw	Win %	Top-3 %	IV	A/E	PRB	Runs
Low (inside)	8.5% 11 wins	12.3%	0.96 vs course avg	1.84 vs market	63.6%	130
Middle	7.5% 8 wins	11.3%	0.85 vs course avg	0.43 vs market	59.9%	106
High (outside)	10.5% 12 wins	18.4%	1.19 vs course avg	0.76 vs market	70.6%	114

Tipperary draw bias

5-6f · 30 races

7-8f · 31 races

Common questions

Is there a draw bias at Tipperary?

Does the market already price in the Tipperary draw bias?

What do IV, A/E and PRB mean?

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