Is there a draw bias at Wetherby?
Not meaningfully. Across 56 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09, no distance band at Wetherby shows an IV spread big enough to call a real stall bias.
Wetherby draw bias
Not meaningfully. Across 56 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09, no distance band at Wetherby shows an IV spread big enough to call a real stall bias.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 56 races · updated 9 June 2026
5-6f · 25 races
Sample too small to call5-6f · 25 races · field avg win 10.8%
Sample too small to call
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 15.6% 14 wins | 26.7% | 1.44 vs course avg | 1.29 vs market | 66.8% | 90 |
| Middle | 8.6% 6 wins | 20% | 0.80 vs course avg | 1.01 vs market | 65% | 70 |
| High (outside) | 6.9% 5 wins | 15.3% | 0.64 vs course avg | 0.59 vs market | 55% | 72 |
7-8f · 31 races
Sample too small to call7-8f · 31 races · field avg win 9.2%
Sample too small to call
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.5% 12 wins | 15.9% | 1.04 vs course avg | 0.71 vs market | 61.4% | 126 |
| Middle | 9.5% 10 wins | 16.2% | 1.04 vs course avg | 1.46 vs market | 62.5% | 105 |
| High (outside) | 8.5% 10 wins | 15.4% | 0.93 vs course avg | 1.12 vs market | 59.7% | 117 |
Common questions
Does the market already price in the Wetherby draw bias?
With no strong bias to price, stall position at Wetherby is rarely a value angle either way — judge each race on pace and ability.
What do IV, A/E and PRB mean?
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Keep going
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.