Yes, in places. Across 1,923 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.24). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 1,923 races · updated 9 June 2026
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 12.6% 282 wins | 20.4% | 1.24 vs course avg | 1.10 vs market | 65.7% | 2231 |
| Middle | 9.3% 169 wins | 17% | 0.91 vs course avg | 0.90 vs market | 60.3% | 1826 |
| High (outside) | 8.5% 172 wins | 14.3% | 0.83 vs course avg | 0.95 vs market | 59.2% | 2035 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 10.3% 151 wins | 18.1% | 1.05 vs course avg | 0.90 vs market | 63.1% | 1460 |
| Middle | 10.7% 136 wins | 16.5% | 1.09 vs course avg | 1.06 vs market | 61.9% | 1271 |
| High (outside) | 8.4% 116 wins | 14.2% | 0.86 vs course avg | 1.06 vs market | 60.7% | 1374 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.7% 268 wins | 16.5% | 0.96 vs course avg | 0.95 vs market | 61.5% | 2760 |
| Middle | 11.3% 262 wins | 18.1% | 1.12 vs course avg | 1.09 vs market | 64.4% | 2314 |
| High (outside) | 9.5% 240 wins | 15.2% | 0.94 vs course avg | 0.98 vs market | 59.7% | 2533 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.6% 41 wins | 16.9% | 0.89 vs course avg | 0.84 vs market | 63.1% | 426 |
| Middle | 12% 42 wins | 18.1% | 1.11 vs course avg | 1.06 vs market | 63.4% | 349 |
| High (outside) | 11% 42 wins | 17.2% | 1.02 vs course avg | 1.15 vs market | 61.2% | 383 |
Yes, in places. Across 1,923 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — moderate: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.24). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Not fully. The favoured thirds at Wolverhampton (AW) hold A/E at or above 1 in our window — the bias has not been completely priced away, which is where a draw edge can actually pay.
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.