Yes, in places. Across 346 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.37); over 7-8f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.22); over 9-12f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.38). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
2023-06-01 – 2026-06-09 results · 346 races · updated 9 June 2026
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 9.2% 66 wins | 15.7% | 1.37 vs course avg | 1.18 vs market | 62.8% | 720 |
| Middle | 6.1% 38 wins | 11% | 0.90 vs course avg | 0.83 vs market | 59.6% | 626 |
| High (outside) | 4.7% 31 wins | 8% | 0.69 vs course avg | 0.88 vs market | 53.1% | 666 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 8.3% 40 wins | 14.8% | 1.22 vs course avg | 0.94 vs market | 62.2% | 481 |
| Middle | 7.2% 30 wins | 11.8% | 1.06 vs course avg | 1.22 vs market | 56.6% | 415 |
| High (outside) | 4.8% 22 wins | 8.6% | 0.71 vs course avg | 0.95 vs market | 52.7% | 454 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 11.1% 41 wins | 18.1% | 1.38 vs course avg | 1.07 vs market | 61.5% | 370 |
| Middle | 5.7% 18 wins | 11.4% | 0.71 vs course avg | 0.82 vs market | 55.6% | 316 |
| High (outside) | 7% 24 wins | 12.5% | 0.87 vs course avg | 1.09 vs market | 58.4% | 344 |
| Draw | Win % | Top-3 % | IV | A/E | PRB | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (inside) | 10.6% 15 wins | 16.3% | 1.16 vs course avg | 0.80 vs market | 58% | 141 |
| Middle | 5.2% 6 wins | 12.2% | 0.57 vs course avg | 0.83 vs market | 53.4% | 115 |
| High (outside) | 11.1% 14 wins | 19% | 1.21 vs course avg | 1.46 vs market | 62.2% | 126 |
Yes, in places. Across 346 races from 2023-06-01 to 2026-06-09: over 5-6f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.37); over 7-8f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.22); over 9-12f — strong: low (inside) favoured (iv 1.38). Check the A/E column before betting it: a bias the market already prices in is not an edge.
Partly. Some favoured bands at York show A/E below 1 (bias over-priced), others do not — the tables below show which is which.
IV (Impact Value) is the group's win rate versus all runners in the same races — 1.00 is neutral. A/E is actual wins versus what de-overrounded Betfair prices expected — below 1 means the market over-bets that group. PRB is the mean percentage of rivals beaten, a finer-grained placing measure.
Method: stall numbers grouped into field thirds (low/middle/high) per race, so field size never skews the groups; IV against same-course same-band baseline; A/E against de-overrounded Betfair SP. Small samples are flagged rather than hidden. Racing Alpha does not accept bets. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org.