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RacingAlpha

16:35 Curragh

IrelandFeature

Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1)

1m4f · Flat · Class 1 · Good · 8 runners · €712,500 · Sunday, 28 June 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick placed 2nd
  1. 1st
    Benvenuto Cellini (IRE)
    Ryan Moore·A P O'Brien
    7/4F·2.75
    SP
  2. 2nd
    Christmas Day (IRE)AI top pick · 78.2
    Ronan Whelan·A P O'Brien·beaten 1.75 lengths
    4/1·5.00
    SP
  3. 3rd
    Pierre Bonnard (IRE)
    Wayne Lordan·A P O'Brien·beaten 0.3 lengths
    9/1·10.00
    SP
Race time
2m 28.33s−3.57s vs std

Notably fast — strong race time, solid form line.

In-running (Benvenuto Cellini (IRE))

At the rear on outer - crossed to inner after 4f - veered left 4f out - travelled well into 2nd 2f out - led 1 1/2f out - drifted right - ridden out to hold on

Settled · 1pt level stake = 4.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party
Pundit pick: Benvenuto Cellini

Benvenuto Cellini looked a top-class prospect winning a Group 3 at Chester by four lengths and his non-start at Epsom — caused by a stalls incident — should be entirely set aside; the faster going here is strongly in his favour and he is our selection. Christmas Day won the Group 1 at Epsom by three lengths last time and has strong form claims, but the quicker surface is a query for him. Raaheeb, unbeaten and open to improvement at this trip, and James J Braddock, who ran a fine third at Epsom and should relish this track, are the main dangers.

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Christmas Day

Ronan Whelan · A P O'Brien · 3yo

Top-rated of 8
score 78.2 · +1.6 clear of next best (76.6)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Freshness10% weight
    100very strong
    22d since last run (race-fit window)
  • Form20% weight
    89very strong
    Last 6: 1-1-1-3-1
  • Ratings50% weight
    79strong
    OR 118 — highest combined rating in the field
  • Trainer20% weight
    55average
    A P O'Brien: 11/50 winners last 14d (22%)
MarketNo market price available yet.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Curragh 1m4f

full course data →

Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.13).

Low (1–3)
IV 1.10
Mid (4–6)
IV 1.13
High (7–8)
IV 0.78

Today: Christmas Day (draw 6) and Action (draw 4) get the bias; Benvenuto Cellini (draw 8) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 126 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

PosNo.HorseFormORAISP
12
J: Ryan Moore · T: A P O'Brien · draw 8
3yo · C · ch
1131
11476.6
7/4F·2.75
SP
24
J: Ronan Whelan · T: A P O'Brien · draw 6
3yo · C · b
11131
11878.2
4/1·5.00
SP
36
J: Wayne Lordan · T: A P O'Brien · draw 1
3yo · C · b
11727
10866.8
9/1·10.00
SP
47
J: Rossa Ryan · T: Owen Burrows · draw 3
3yo · C · b
11
11269.3
11/4·3.75
SP
58
3yo · C · ch
24143
10355.5
33/1·34.00
SP
65
3yo · C · b
21513
11169.2
7/1·8.00
SP
71
J: Declan McDonogh · T: A P O'Brien · draw 4
3yo · C · ch
32420
11166.8
22/1·23.00
SP
83
J: Sean Levey · T: Richard Hannon · draw 5
3yo · C · b
311
10265.7
50/1·51.00
SP

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 16:35 Curragh on 28 June 2026?

Benvenuto Cellini (IRE) won the 16:35 Curragh at SP 2.75. Ridden by Ryan Moore. Trained by A P O'Brien.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:35 Curragh?

No — the AI top pick (Christmas Day) finished 2.

What were the placings in the 16:35 Curragh?

Top finishers: 1. Benvenuto Cellini (IRE) (2.75), 2. Christmas Day (IRE) (5.00), 3. Pierre Bonnard (IRE) (10.00).

What was the winning time for the 16:35 Curragh?

The winning time was 2m 28.33s, 3.57s faster than standard.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org