16:12 Ayr

Birra Poretti Handicap (Div I)

7f · Flat · Class 5 · Good To Firm · 9 runners · £4,187 · Wednesday, 20 May 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick wonat SP 9/2·5.50

1st
Roaring Ralph (GB)AI top pick · 52.1
Connor Beasley·Michael Dods
9/2·5.50
SP
2nd
Novak (GB)
Andrew Mullen·Iain Jardine·beaten 1 length
11/1·12.00
SP
3rd
Al Muqdad (GB)
David Nolan·David O'Meara·beaten 0.2 lengths
9/2·5.50
SP

Race time

1m 28.33s+1.73s vs std

Slightly slow — minor pace variance, nothing to read into.

In-running (Roaring Ralph (GB))

“Held up in midfield - good headway when ridden over 1f out - led inside final furlong - ran on”

Settled · 1pt level stake = 4.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Royal Blaze

A chance is taken on 1m2f course winner ROYAL BLAZE on this drop back in trip. The in-form Roaring Ralph is a danger.

Forecast 3/1 Roaring Ralph, 7/2 Al Muqdad, 4/1 Kelpie Grey, 11/2 Royal Blaze, 15/2 Valentine Catcher, Novak, 11/1 Mr Cool, 33/1 Elizabeth Bay, Maui Breeze

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Roaring Ralph

Connor Beasley · Michael Dods · 6yo

Top-rated of 9

score 52.1 · +3.3 clear of next best (48.8)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Form20% weight
91very strong
Last 6: 2-2-1-1-1-2
Freshness10% weight
70strong
13d since last run (quick turnaround)
Ratings50% weight
51average
OR 70 · RPR 83
Trainer20% weight
8weak
Michael Dods: 1/35 winners last 14d (3%)

MarketNo market price available yet.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Ayr 7f

full course data →

No meaningful draw bias at this course and trip.

Low (1–3)

IV 1.06

Mid (4–6)

IV 0.92

High (7–9)

IV 1.01

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 140 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

Pos	No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	SP
1	1	Roaring Ralph J: Connor Beasley · T: Michael Dods · draw 8 6yo · G · bb	221112	9-09	70	83	—	52.1	9/2·5.50 SP
2	7	Novak J: Andrew Mullen · T: Iain Jardine · draw 6 7yo · G · gr	246585	9-03	64	84	46	39.1	11/1·12.00 SP
3	4	Al Muqdad J: David Nolan · T: David O'Meara · draw 3 6yo · G · chp	673606	9-07	68	85	71	39.5	9/2·5.50 SP
4	6	Valentine Catcher J: Sean Kirrane · T: Tim Easterby · draw 2 5yo · G · bp	57926	9-03	64	81	68	44.2	6/1·7.00 SP
5	2	Kelpie Grey J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Jim Goldie · draw 4 6yo · G · gr	57056	9-08	69	89	82	42.9	11/8F·2.38 SP
6	3	Mr Cool J: Oliver Stammers · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 7 4yo · G · bp	064725	9-08	69	80	77	48.8	14/1·15.00 SP
7	8	Maui Breeze J: Paula Muir(3) · T: Wilf Storey · draw 9 4yo · F · bp	52907	9-01	62	83	68	33.9	40/1·41.00 SP
8	9	Royal Blaze J: P J McDonald · T: Ewan Whillans · draw 5 5yo · G · bt	02344	8-12	59	83	75	44.0	16/1·17.00 SP
9	5	Elizabeth Bay J: Greg Fairley · T: Katie Scott · draw 1 4yo · F · ch	32438	9-06	67	78	52	34.9	80/1·81.00 SP

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 16:12 Ayr on 20 May 2026?

Roaring Ralph (GB) won the 16:12 Ayr at SP 5.50. Ridden by Connor Beasley. Trained by Michael Dods.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:12 Ayr?

Yes — the AI top-rated horse, Roaring Ralph, won the race (AI score 52.1).

What were the placings in the 16:12 Ayr?

Top finishers: 1. Roaring Ralph (GB) (5.50), 2. Novak (GB) (12.00), 3. Al Muqdad (GB) (5.50).

What was the winning time for the 16:12 Ayr?

The winning time was 1m 28.33s, 1.73s slower than standard.

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