Who won the 15:12 Ayr on 20 May 2026?
Military Girl (IRE) won the 15:12 Ayr at SP 3.25. Ridden by Connor Beasley. Trained by Michael Dods.
15:12 Ayr
Altos Tequila Handicap
5f · Flat · Class 5 · Good To Firm · 6 runners · £4,187 · Wednesday, 20 May 2026
Result
AI top pick finished 5thRace report
- 1stMilitary Girl (IRE)Connor Beasley·Michael Dods9/4·3.25SP
- 2ndThunderstorm Katie (GB)Lauren Young·Jim Goldie·beaten 1.25 lengths11/10F·2.10SP
- 3rdHenery Hawk (GB)Tom Kiely-Marshall·Linda Perratt·beaten 0.2 lengths33/1·34.00SP
Race time
58.81s+1.91s vs std
Slightly slow — minor pace variance, nothing to read into.
In-running (Military Girl (IRE))
“Prominent - ridden and led over 1f out - soon faced challenge - kept on final 110yds”
AI top-rated Donald (score 46.4) finished 5th.
Settled · 1pt level stake = 6.50 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →
Furlong's verdict
Reading the form…
AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.
Pundit corner
Racing Post · third-partyPundit pick: Thunderstorm Katie
This can go to THUNDERSTORM KATIE (nap). Jim Goldie's mare looked unfortunate when chasing home Classy Clarets at Hamilton on Friday.
Forecast 5/2 Thunderstorm Katie, 4/1 Military Girl, 5/1 Hi Lord, 6/1 Water Of Leith, 13/2 Donald, Henery Hawk, 10/1 Classy Al, 33/1 Jm Jhingree
Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.
Why the model rates this top
Donald
William Pyle · David & Nicola Barron · 4yo
Top-rated of 6
score 46.4 · +1.0 clear of next best (45.4)
Scores compare runners within this race only
The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.
- Freshness10% weight70strong11d since last run (quick turnaround)
- Form20% weight55averageLast 6: 4-4-2-4
- Ratings50% weight48below averageOR 69 · RPR 76 · TS 70
- Trainer20% weight23weakDavid & Nicola Barron: 1/11 winners last 14d (9%)
MarketNo market price available yet.
v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.
Draw bias — Ayr 5f
full course data →Moderate: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.24).
Low (1–3)
IV 1.24
Mid (4–6)
IV 0.98
High (7–8)
IV 0.75
Today: Thunderstorm Katie (draw 1) and Hi Lord (draw 3) get the bias; Donald (draw 8) is in the least-favoured band.
IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 122 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.
Runners · sorted by finishing position
| Pos | No. | Horse | Form | OR | AI | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | J: Connor Beasley · T: Michael Dods · draw 5 4yo · F · b | 55443 | 65 | 44.1 | 9/4·3.25 SP |
| 2 | 8 | J: Lauren Young(5) · T: Jim Goldie · draw 1 5yo · M · b | 68972 | 59 | 41.4 | 11/10F·2.10 SP |
| 3 | 7 | J: Tom Kiely-Marshall(5) · T: Linda Perratt · draw 6 7yo · G · b | 632361 | 60 | 45.4 | 33/1·34.00 SP |
| 4 | 3 | J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Jim Goldie · draw 7 8yo · G · b | 40000 | 67 | 32.2 | 8/1·9.00 SP |
| 5 | 1 | J: William Pyle · T: David & Nicola Barron · draw 8 4yo · G · ch | 4424 | 69 | 46.4 | 13/2·7.50 SP |
| 6 | 4 | J: P J McDonald · T: Ewan Whillans · draw 2 4yo · G · b | 46508 | 67 | 32.3 | 18/1·19.00 SP |
| — | — | J: Barry McHugh · T: Gary Harrison · draw 3 4yo · G · b | 78051 | 67 | 41.4 | — |
| — | — | J: Shane Gray · T: Jim Goldie · draw 4 8yo · G · b | 231465 | 66 | 45.0 | — |
OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest
Frequently asked questions
Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 15:12 Ayr?
No — the AI top pick (Donald) finished 5.
What were the placings in the 15:12 Ayr?
Top finishers: 1. Military Girl (IRE) (3.25), 2. Thunderstorm Katie (GB) (2.10), 3. Henery Hawk (GB) (34.00).
What was the winning time for the 15:12 Ayr?
The winning time was 58.81s, 1.91s slower than standard.
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