16:38 Haydock

Early Bird Handicap

6f · Flat · Class 5 · Soft · 11 runners · £4,449 · Thursday, 21 May 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick finished 4th

1st
There's A Chance (IRE)
Shane Gray·Kevin Ryan
100/30F·4.33
SP
2nd
Woolisle (GB)
Cieren Fallon·Heather Main·beaten 1 length
7/1·8.00
SP
3rd
From The Hip (GB)
Tyler Heard·Mark Usher·beaten 4.25 lengths
16/1·17.00
SP

Race time

1m 18.52s+8.22s vs std

Slow — could be soft ground, easy lead, or tactical race.

In-running (There's A Chance (IRE))

“Dwelt start - raced centre - towards rear - headway over 1f out - led inside final furlong - clear with one other inside final 110yds - pushed out”

AI top-rated Showtown (score 51.6) finished 4th.

Settled · 1pt level stake = 6.00 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party

Pundit pick: Stoneacre Joe

Handicap newcomer STONEACRE JOE (nap) has been a promising second on his last two starts and earns the vote ahead of Harlequin Bay.

Forecast 3/1 Woolisle, 9/2 Stoneacre Joe, 5/1 From The Hip, 7/1 Showtown, 15/2 There's A Chance, 10/1 Daizen, 11/1 Angels' Share, 12/1 Guernsey Angel, 14/1 Harlequin Bay, 16/1 Magistery, 33/1 Hvar

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

Showtown

Kevin Stott · Kevin Ryan · 3yo

Top-rated of 11

score 51.6 · +0.1 clear of next best (51.4)

Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

Freshness10% weight
100very strong
17d since last run (race-fit window)
Ratings50% weight
50below average
OR 73 · RPR 81 · TS 70
Form20% weight
48below average
Last 6: 2-2-3-2-0
Trainer20% weight
35below average
Kevin Ryan: 5/35 winners last 14d (14%)

MarketNo market price available yet.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Haydock 6f

full course data →

Strong: low (inside) favoured (IV 1.22).

Low (1–5)

IV 1.22

Mid (6–9)

IV 0.71

High (10–13)

IV 1.02

Today: Showtown (draw 3) and Stoneacre Joe (draw 4) get the bias; Angels' Share (draw 8) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 114 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

Pos	No.	Horse	Form	Wt	OR	RPR	TS	AI	SP
1	3	There's A Chance J: Shane Gray · T: Kevin Ryan · draw 13 3yo · F · b	41873	9-09	75	78	69	50.1	100/30F·4.33 SP
2	4	Woolisle J: Cieren Fallon · T: Heather Main · draw 11 3yo · F · b	43621	9-07	73	79	67	42.7	7/1·8.00 SP
3	5	From The Hip J: Tyler Heard · T: Mark Usher · draw 1 3yo · C · b	33811	9-07	73	79	73	44.3	16/1·17.00 SP
4	6	Showtown J: Kevin Stott · T: Kevin Ryan · draw 3 3yo · G · bp	22320	9-07	73	81	70	51.6	6/1·7.00 SP
5	9	Daizen J: Harry Burns(3) · T: Rebecca Menzies · draw 2 3yo · G · gr	22150	9-06	72	80	51	42.8	7/2·4.50 SP
6	10	Guernsey Angel J: Joe Leavy · T: David Evans · draw 7 3yo · F · br	16456	9-05	71	77	64	40.2	12/1·13.00 SP
7	8	Hvar J: Jason Hart · T: John & Sean Quinn · draw 6 3yo · G · gr	54100	9-06	72	76	35	40.4	33/1·34.00 SP
8	1	Stoneacre Joe J: Ryan Sexton · T: Tim Easterby · draw 4 3yo · G · b	922	9-09	75	82	61	51.4	11/2·6.50 SP
9	2	Angels' Share J: Rossa Ryan · T: William Knight · draw 8 3yo · F · b	21108	9-09	75	80	61	48.9	10/1·11.00 SP
10	12	Harlequin Bay J: Jack Garritty · T: Richard & Peter Fahey · draw 12 3yo · C · b	5223	9-04	70	79	53	50.6	16/1·17.00 SP
11	7	Magistery J: Kaiya Fraser · T: Michael Dods · draw 5 3yo · F · b	26150	9-06	72	75	59	38.6	33/1·34.00 SP
—	—	Obsidian Verse J: NON-RUNNER · T: James Fanshawe · draw 10 3yo · G · b	84581	9-03	69	82	—	51.4	—
—	—	Explosive Finnish J: NON-RUNNER · T: Kevin Frost · draw 9 3yo · G · ch	54333	9-05	71	—	—	44.9	—

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 16:38 Haydock on 21 May 2026?

There's A Chance (IRE) won the 16:38 Haydock at SP 4.33. Ridden by Shane Gray. Trained by Kevin Ryan.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 16:38 Haydock?

No — the AI top pick (Showtown) finished 4.

What were the placings in the 16:38 Haydock?

Top finishers: 1. There's A Chance (IRE) (4.33), 2. Woolisle (GB) (8.00), 3. From The Hip (GB) (17.00).

What was the winning time for the 16:38 Haydock?

The winning time was 1m 18.52s, 8.22s slower than standard.

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