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15:45 Goodwood

Darley British EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)

1m2f · Flat · Class 2 · Good · 8 runners · £25,770 · Saturday, 23 May 2026

Result

Race report

AI top pick placed 2nd
  1. 1st
    Mother Dear (GB)
    Rob Hornby·Hughie Morrison
    11/2·6.50
    SP
  2. 2nd
    St Hilda (IRE)AI top pick · 58.1
    David Probert·Marcus Tregoning·beaten .75 lengths
    100/30J·4.33
    SP
  3. 3rd
    Guesstimate (GB)
    Pat Dobbs·William Haggas·beaten 1.25 lengths
    9/2·5.50
    SP
Race time
2m 9.00s+3.80s vs std

Slow — could be soft ground, easy lead, or tactical race.

In-running (Mother Dear (GB))

“Prominent - pressed leaders over 2f out - ridden inside final furlong - led inside final 110yds - kept on well”

Settled · 1pt level stake = 3.33 pt return on the winnerTipping P&L →

Furlong's verdict

Reading the form…

AI-written, grounded in our data on this race. May be wrong. Verify before staking. Opinion, not advice.

Pundit corner

Racing Post · third-party
Pundit pick: Lady Magu

With improvement plausible, LADY MAGU may be able to reverse Lingfield placings with St Hilda who nevertheless warrants respect.

Forecast 9/4 Evening Fades, 11/4 St Hilda, 5/1 Lady Magu, 7/1 Guesstimate, 8/1 Triumph, 10/1 Cixi, 14/1 Mother Dear, 20/1 Kenkelly

Editorial from Racing Post analysts via the Racing API — not generated by Racing Alpha. Formbook forecast prices are estimates, not market prices.

Why the model rates this top

St Hilda

David Probert · Marcus Tregoning · 3yo

Top-rated of 8
score 58.1 · +2.1 clear of next best (56.0)
Scores compare runners within this race only

The Racing Alpha rating combines four signals. Below is the breakdown — components driving this pick first.

  • Freshness10% weight
    100very strong
    26d since last run (race-fit window)
  • Form20% weight
    67strong
    Last 6: 4-2
  • Ratings50% weight
    59average
    RPR 89 — highest combined rating in the field
  • Trainer20% weight
    25weak
    Marcus Tregoning: 1/10 winners last 14d (10%)
MarketNo market price available yet.

v1.3 rating — a field-relative score, not a win probability; for market-derived value see the Fair column in the runners table. Weights and method on /about. Tips are opinions, not advice.

Draw bias — Goodwood 1m2f

full course data →

Moderate: middle favoured (IV 1.19).

Low (1–3)
IV 0.82
Mid (4–6)
IV 1.19
High (7–8)
IV 1.02

Today: Lady Magu (draw 6) and Triumph (draw 5) get the bias; Guesstimate (draw 1) is in the least-favoured band.

IV = impact value: 1.00 is neutral, above it a stall band wins more often than its share of runners predicts. 104 qualifying races at this course and trip, 3-year window.

Runners · sorted by finishing position

PosNo.HorseFormORAISP
17
Mother Dear
J: Rob Hornby · T: Hughie Morrison · draw 8
3yo · F · ch
8
—38.0
11/2·6.50
SP
28
St Hilda
J: David Probert · T: Marcus Tregoning · draw 7
3yo · F · b
42
—58.1
100/30J·4.33
SP
35
Guesstimate
J: Pat Dobbs · T: William Haggas · draw 1
3yo · F · br
3203
6955.5
9/2·5.50
SP
41
Cixi
J: Pat Cosgrave · T: Michael Bell · draw 4
3yo · F · ch
4453
7447.8
12/1·13.00
SP
56
Lady Magu
J: Ray Dawson · T: Roger Varian · draw 6
3yo · F · ch
5
—56.0
11/2·6.50
SP
64
Evening Fades
J: Tom Marquand · T: William Haggas · draw 2
3yo · F · b
4
—53.7
100/30J·4.33
SP
72
Kenkelly
J: Hector Crouch · T: Tom Clover · draw 3
3yo · F · b
3
—51.2
11/1·12.00
SP
83
Triumph
J: Sean D Bowen · T: Charlie Johnston · draw 5
3yo · F · ch
3
—52.7
16/1·17.00
SP

OR = official rating · AI = model score (0–100) · form reads oldest → latest

Frequently asked questions

Who won the 15:45 Goodwood on 23 May 2026?

Mother Dear (GB) won the 15:45 Goodwood at SP 6.50. Ridden by Rob Hornby. Trained by Hughie Morrison.

Did the Racing Alpha AI tip win the 15:45 Goodwood?

No — the AI top pick (St Hilda) finished 2.

What were the placings in the 15:45 Goodwood?

Top finishers: 1. Mother Dear (GB) (6.50), 2. St Hilda (IRE) (4.33), 3. Guesstimate (GB) (5.50).

What was the winning time for the 15:45 Goodwood?

The winning time was 2m 9.00s, 3.80s slower than standard.

Best price shown is the highest decimal price across bookmakers we track. Odds update every few minutes; settle at SP if unavailable. 18+ only · Bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org